Breathin' Orange Fire

No player has gone more from "who's that?" to "who's that!" this season for the Astros than Chas McCormick. McCormick seemed the beneficiary of the Astros choice to avoid signing a second veteran outfielder this off-season. That decision moved Myles Straw to starting centerfielder, and McCormick to make his major league debut as the fourth outfielder.  But McCormick has seized his opportunity, hitting 9 homers, scoring 25 runs and driving in 27 runs in 132 PAs so far this season. McCormick's slash line is highlighted by his power at .231/.291/.496. His OPS+ of 113 and his wRC+ of 113 are both above league average. McCormick's power is combined with good defense in the outfield corners and excellent speed.  This diverse set of skills has led Astros observers to agree with this tweet from Chronicle beat writer Chandler Rome: Chas McCormick should play more. — Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 18, 2021 In this article, I address the question of should...

On Thursday, baseball writer Ryan Spaeder tweeted a thread of claims of cheating by a number of major league baseball teams.  On Friday, Spaeder retracted the thread, tweeting  "I deeply regret everything that I said -- it has turned my life upside down. It was a mistake, and I should not have reported on unfounded allegations."  In between these two sets of tweets, Astros Twitter made much of Spaeder's accusations, as thinly sourced as they were. Astros fans feel that their team has received a disproportionate share of vitriol from baseball fans--especially on social media--and took the accusations against other teams as evidence of what has long been suspected if not proven--that many other teams were using nefarious means to steal signs. What the Astros did in 2017 and 2018 may have broken the rules of baseball, but it was similar to, if not the same as, what many other teams did.  That last statement, like those of Speader in his initial thread, is an fine hypo...

The formula to play winning baseball is simple...play the good teams to a draw and beat up on the bad teams. It's what some of the best team in the majors are doing this year. The White Sox are 13-18 against teams over .500 and 28-7 against teams below .500. The A's are 17-18 against winning teams and 24-9 against losing teams. The Dodgers are similar; they are  16-20 against teams with a winning record and 24-6 against teams with a losing record. The Astros have one of the best records in baseball, but they are doing it differently. They are beating up on good teams--they're 27-16 against teams with records above .500--and getting beat by bad teams--they're 10-16 against teams below .500. You can examine the data in more detailed form and the Astros backwards performance--best against the best and worst against the worst--is shown even more sharply. I grouped major league baseball teams into thirds by winning percentage. The Astros record against teams in the best thir...

 On Saturday, Aledmys Diaz was pulled from the game after being hit by a pitch from Blue Jays starter Ross Stripling. Sunday, news came that Diaz was not pulled for precautionary reasons. He had broken his hand.  Aledmys Díaz fractured his left hand. He’s going to be out a while. Dusty Baker says approximately 6-8 weeks. — Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) June 6, 2021 This is obviously bad news for the Astros as Diaz was contributing at the plate with a .278/.341/.435 slash line, and on defense with his flexibility--Diaz has played every infield position as well as left and right field this season.  But it is also a big problem because the Astros are a team without a great deal of depth.  Aledmys Diaz is taken out of the game on Saturday. The Astros have the 5th best record  (33-26) and the 3rd best run differential (+69) in the American League. This success is driven by the team's frontline players. They have seven lineup regulars with OPS+'s at 119 or greater. Fiv...

The Astros 5-1 victory last night over the Red Sox was significant for two reasons. First, it means the Astros are guaranteed a split against the Red Sox, which, since I married a Red Sox fan, means I get the upper hand on price in my house.  And second, it closes out the second sixth of the season. Here at Breathin’ Orange Fire, we mark the season through each 27 game block in which the Astros play—or each sixth of the season. While you usually see discussions of the end of the month, I prefer sixths for two reasons: 1)       It’s easier to compare sixths because they are equal. So Kyle Tucker’s slash line of .327/.405/.602 this sixth is a big improvement on the .173/.229/.357 slash line from the first sixth of the season. 2)       The math is easier. The Astros have now played 54 games—which is two-sixth or one-third of the season. You can take all of their counting stats and multiply by 3. So Carlos Correa has hit 8 homers,...

Robert Ford had the play-by-play in the radio booth in the first, and his call of a ball on the first pitch of the ballgame sent a negative thought to my mind—not again. After a weekend of too many walks from Astros pitchers, I feared the worst. I shouldn’t have. Urquidy threw 87 pitches in his six innings on Memorial Day against the Red Sox; only 26 were balls. 61 were strikes. Urquidy’s ability to throw strikes on Monday led him to a high-quality start, as he allowed only 1 run, 3 hits, and 1 walk while striking out 9. After a weekend of the Padres bats teeing off on Astros pitching in between bases on balls, Urquidy’s outing—and the 11 runs put up by the offense—were a welcome sight for Astros fans. I also should not have feared the worst from Urquidy yesterday because Urquidy has consistently pitched well in his time in the big leagues. Since making his debut in August 2019, Urquidy has made 21 regular season starts in the Orange and Blue.  He has a 3.26 ERA with 99 strik...

Here’s an understatement: it went poorly for the Astros this weekend. Houston’s nine lost all 3 games in Arlington, an outcome which is frustrating for two reasons: 1) the Rangers are not a very good baseball team, and 2) No self-respecting Astros fan wants to lose to the team up north once, much less three times in a row. To my eyes, the blame for the poor showing this weekend falls primarily on the offense. The team slashed .228/.299/.281, with only 4 extra base hits across the 3-game slate. The team was even worse at key moments. The team was 5 for 33 (.152) with runners in scoring position. Bregman and Correa couldn't deliver in the 10th on Sunday. Notably poor was the offense’s performance on Sunday. Mike Foltynewicz entered the game with a 5.18 ERA, but the Astros managed only 3 singles and 2 bases on balls in seven scoreless innings. The offensive woes were also present in the 10 th inning. With runners on first and third and no outs, Carlos Correa popped out, Alex Breg...

 We all know the maxims that tell us the importance of throwing strikes for pitchers--"What's the best pitch for a pitcher to throw? Strike one." "Leadoff walks always seem to score," and the ever-popular "Throw strikes." Last night in Oakland, Zach Greinke threw strikes. Of the 89 pitches that he threw in his 8 innings of work, 63 were strikes. That's a 71% strike rate, the highest of the season for Greinke. Greinke allowed only 1 walk and 4 hits in an efficient performance.  Greinke was intense on the mound last night.  Greinke has had an up-and-down season, with great inconsistency between starts. Greinke has had 4 blow-up starts, where he has pitched fewer than 5 winnings. In those starts, he has given up 17 earned runs in 16 2/3 IP for a 9.18 ERA. He has allowed 26 hits, 9 walks, and 6 homers. This contrasts with the six very good starts that we have seen from Greinke. In these starts, Greinke has thrown 43 innings (7.2 innings per start). and...

I'm going to #StateYourUnpopularOpinion:  Brooks Raley is an average major league relief pitcher. The first point to make here is that the idea the Brooks Raley is a competent at his job is the opinion of a minority of Astros fans, and small minority at that.  A quick twitter search for Brooks Raley finds opinions from Astros fans that range from anger  Brooks Raley doesn’t need to be used in games that are close. This isn’t difficult. — Michael Connor (@MC790) May 9, 2021 to despair  Brooks Raley in with the game on the line pic.twitter.com/OciThNkbuz — Roosh (@RooshWilliams) May 6, 2021 to acceptance  Two things will survive a nuclear blast: cockroaches and Brooks Raley https://t.co/EGo57ggeww — Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) May 16, 2021 to fatalism.   Watching Brooks Raley and Joe Smith with the game on the line is more cruel than any punishment Manfred could have dreamed of — Tyler Stafford (@tylercstafford) May 6, 2021 And there is a g...

"Tucker!  High and Deep to Right Field! Forget About it!" Todd Kalas's call of Kyle Tucker's 6th inning bomb off of Andrew Heaney captured the moment. Tucker hit it into the 2nd deck in right field and Kalas's call made it clear it was a no-doubter. Tucker Got All of That One Last Night On Wednesday, Tucker homered and singled, marking his 4th straight game with a base hit. Over those 4 games, Tucker is 7 for 13 with 3 homers, 2 other extra base hits, 3 walks and only 2 strikeouts.  This mini-hot streak has lifted Tucker's OPS from .584 to .741--that is from below the MLB average (.701) to above it.  Why was Tucker slumping through the season's first 33 games?  Why did he have a slash line of .175/.242/.342 before Sunday's game against the Blue Jays?  I took a deep dive into Tucker's numbers this season, particularly in comparison to his numbers from 2020, when he established himself not only as an everyday player, but an above average contributo...

 It is one of the classic rants from a coach or manager. Dennis Green entered a press conference steamed that Arizona Cardinals had allowed the Chicago Bears to come from behind to win a Monday Night Football game. Green took the mike and started yelling, getting off a number of gif-worthy quotes. The one that sticks out in my head this morning--we let 'em off the hook. Such is my attitude about the Astros 5-4 loss on Monday night. The Astros had the Angels on the ropes early, and they let 'em off the hook. The first three Astros reached in the bottom of the first. A run was in, runners were at 2nd and 3rd, and Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa were due. They were set up for a big inning. But didn't get it. Alvarez struck out. Gurriel popped up the catcher. And Correa struck out.  In the bottom of the 2nd, the first 3 batters reached as Angels bulk guy Jose Suarez was wild, having walked Jason Castro on 3 pitches.  But Jose Altuve hit into a double play, pro...

Back in the winter, a friend mentioned going to the Astros-Yankees series in the Bronx casually, and I met that thought with trepidation.  Go to an Astros-Yankees game?  This year?  Did I really want to go see my team get booed and jeered?  To watch a game where the focus was not on the game, but on events of four years ago?  To deal with Yankee fans?  The decision was made for me. In late April, my wife said "You will receive your birthday present in a calendar invite I'm about to send you."  And there is was, seconds later:  May 6. 1:05 pm EDT.  HOU vs. NYY. Yankee Stadium.   "You got me tickets to the Astros-Yankees series! Oh, wow.  What a present."  I was going.  And my friend couldn't go, so my wife would go with me. Her mother would come down to babysit.  It was a date. And it left a question in my mind: how would an Astros fan be treated in Yankee Stadium in 2021? * * * I'm not a novice to the intensity o...