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Is Chas McCormick for Real?

No player has gone more from "who's that?" to "who's that!" this season for the Astros than Chas McCormick. McCormick seemed the beneficiary of the Astros choice to avoid signing a second veteran outfielder this off-season. That decision moved Myles Straw to starting centerfielder, and McCormick to make his major league debut as the fourth outfielder. 

But McCormick has seized his opportunity, hitting 9 homers, scoring 25 runs and driving in 27 runs in 132 PAs so far this season. McCormick's slash line is highlighted by his power at .231/.291/.496. His OPS+ of 113 and his wRC+ of 113 are both above league average. McCormick's power is combined with good defense in the outfield corners and excellent speed. 

This diverse set of skills has led Astros observers to agree with this tweet from Chronicle beat writer Chandler Rome:

In this article, I address the question of should he?  Is McCormick's surprise contributions to the Astros in the first half of this season a fluke, with him hitting in good luck?  Or is this the skill level that we can expect from McCormick...a fourth outfielder who combines power, speed, and defense to be a valuable contributor to a winning team? 

The first question to address is what should we have expected from Chas McCormick? At one level, I think the answer is not much. McCormick did not play in the majors in 2020 despite the expanded roster. McCormick was not even on the 40-man roster until the playoffs started. McCormick was not seen as a top prospect for the Astros--Fangraphs listed him as the 18th best prospect entering this season, after ranking him 31st entering 2020. 

But pre-season projections showed the McCormick could help the Astros offensively despite his modest pedigree. The five projection systems listed on Fangraphs projected McCormick for a wRC+ of between 96 and 102. Steamer projected McCormick for a 100 wRC+ (right at league average) with a slash line of .238/.312/.393

While the other systems vary slightly in their expectations of McCormick, his projections are very consistent. Each expected him to to be a low average hitter, who provided enough walks and pop to lift him up to league average. McCormick was a contributing offensive player in the minors in 2019, slashing .269/.386/.432 at Corpus Christi and Round Rock. 

McCormick has two clear strengths to his game in the major leagues--power and defense. 

Let's start with his power. With his 8th inning, opposite field shot last night at Camden Yards, McCormick has 9 home runs this season. This equals the number hit by former MVP Mookie Betts and ahead of those of All Stars like Juan Soto, Joey Votto, and [tugs collar] Alex Bregman (who has 7). 

A frequent site this season: a Chas McCormick home run trot
McCormick's homers represent most of the reason he is exceeding pre-season projections. Steamer projected McCormick to have an isolated power percentage of  155, but in the actual 2021 season, he is at .265.When McCormick makes contact, it's been going a long way. 

McCormick's power surge is quite unexpected--his highest isolated slugging in the minors was .200 in a half a season at AAA Round Rock in 2019. McCormick has a home run to fly ball ratio of 25.0%. That is, one out of every four balls that McCormick is hitting in the air is going over the fence. McCormick had low HR/FB ratios in the minors--all under 10%--until he got to Round Rock in 2019, where the AAA rabbit ball helped him to a 14.1% HR/FB ratio. 

McCormick's other high level skill is defense. McCormick is credited with 5 defensive runs saved in his 293 inning in the outfield. That's 12th best among all major league outfielders this season, regardless of how many innings played. The Outs Above Average measure used by Baseball Savant also shows that McCormick is an elite defender. He is credited with 4 outs above average, which is 11th among all MLB outfielders, again regardless of how many innings played.

Statcast data shows that McCormick's good defense comes from his excellent jump. He gains 3.2 more feet in the first 3 seconds compared to the average major league outfielder.  That's 4th best in the majors. McCormick scores high in Statcast's "burst" measurement, where he's 6th among all MLB outfielders. This shows that McCormick gets up to full speed quicker than all but a few of his peers. 

McCormick's defensive skills work best in the outfield corners. He is credited with 0 defensive runs saved in centerfield, but 2 in left and 3 in right. 

The rest of McCormick's skills are below average. At the plate, McCormick is a low average hitter. He's walked less this season than projected--he has a 7.5% BB%, compared to Steamer's projection of 8.8%. He has also struck out more than expected--his K% if 29.9%, compared to a projection of 22.2%. 

The question of whether McCormick should play more hinges heavily on his power. Are McCormick's big slugging ways a reflection of an increase in skill, or a fluke? McCormick's isolated power and home run/fly ball ratios have tended to increase over time, even as McCormick has faced more difficult pitching. He set minor league career highs in those two categories at AAA in 2019. 

It is possible that McCormick is developing his power as he ages. This is a common trait of baseball players, and if McCormick had gotten to play in AAA in 2020, would hit more home runs than he had in previous seasons.  

It is clear that McCormick's huge HR/FB and isolated slugging increases this season are the result of some good fortune for McCormick. But even if that's the case, McCormick may have leveled up in his power, which has allowed him to level up in his baseball value. 

So it is worth following the suggestion of Chandler Rome. Play Chas McCormick more. 

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