Jose Urquidy Throws Strikes--Lots of Them

Robert Ford had the play-by-play in the radio booth in the first, and his call of a ball on the first pitch of the ballgame sent a negative thought to my mind—not again. After a weekend of too many walks from Astros pitchers, I feared the worst.

I shouldn’t have. Urquidy threw 87 pitches in his six innings on Memorial Day against the Red Sox; only 26 were balls. 61 were strikes. Urquidy’s ability to throw strikes on Monday led him to a high-quality start, as he allowed only 1 run, 3 hits, and 1 walk while striking out 9. After a weekend of the Padres bats teeing off on Astros pitching in between bases on balls, Urquidy’s outing—and the 11 runs put up by the offense—were a welcome sight for Astros fans.

I also should not have feared the worst from Urquidy yesterday because Urquidy has consistently pitched well in his time in the big leagues. Since making his debut in August 2019, Urquidy has made 21 regular season starts in the Orange and Blue.  He has a 3.26 ERA with 99 strikeouts and 25 walks in 121.1 innings pitched. This season, Urquidy has pitched better--if only slightly so--than those numbers. He has a 3.02 ERA after Monday’s outing with 42 strikeouts and only 10 walks in 50.2 IP. That’s good for a 4.20 K/BB ratio, higher than his career mark of 3.96.

Urquidy is a distinct pitcher in contemporary baseball. Strikeout rates have skyrocketed in recent years, and the average American League hurler in 2021 is striking out more than a batter an inning. But Urquidy has struck out only 7.3 batters per nine inning through his career. This season, Urquidy was 107th in K/9 among MLB pitchers (40 IP minimum; ranking does not include yesterday’s games).

But how is Urquidy surviving (and thriving) in a game where striking out batters is an increasingly more important game?  He throws strikes.

Yesterday, Urquidy threw 70.1% of his pitches for strikes (61 of 87). But that’s not a remarkable number for him. Entering Sunday, Urquidy had thrown 476 of his 687 pitches for strikes—that’s a 69.3% strike rate. That it is the best on the team will not surprise Astro fans. But what might surprise is that rate is one of the best in major league baseball. Urquidy is fourth in strike percentage, behind Julio Urias, Jacob de Grom, and Kyle Hendricks—a pretty good (and accomplished) set of pitchers.

Urquidy has always thrown strikes. He has thrown more than twice as many strikes as balls in every one of his professional seasons going back to his professional debut in 2015. And he’s getting better at his; his strike % has increased in each of his three seasons in the majors.

Urquidy’s ability to throw strikes is keeping runners off the base paths. He’s 17^th best in the majors at BB% and 16^th best at BB/9 (40 IP minimum; ranking does not include yesterday’s games). His 2021 WHIP is 0.99.

Urquidy's Statcast Metrics are Unique

Throwing strikes however is not enough to succeed in the majors. Urquidy also induces a great deal of weak contact. His hard hit rate is 32.9% which is 10^th best in the majors. And his average exit velocity on fly balls or line drives is 91.4 MPH, which is 17^th best in baseball this season. It is particularly important for Urquidy to generate weak contact because he is not inducing a lot of swings and misses—his 9.5% swinging strike rate ranks 98^th among pitchers in 2021. So batters may be able to get a hold of Urquidy’s offerings, but they aren’t doing much with it.

Talking about an Astros pitcher who is avoiding walking a ton of batters is a refreshing change from the usual conversation topics of Astros fans this season.  

Urquidy is also a personal favorite of mine. He seemed to slip through the Astros farm system relatively unnoticed, but when he debuted in 2019, I saw in his minor league numbers the potential for the effective starter that we have seen—in fact, Urquidy has exceeded any reasonable person’s expectations of him. I also attended Urquidy’s greatest game—his victory in Game 4 of the 2019 World Series at National Park.

Urquidy’s game on Monday was his best start this season, in large part because he was able to strike out so many Red Sox. Any improvement in Urquidy’s strikeout totals would of course be welcome. But Urquidy has succeeded this far in the major leagues by delivering a high percentage of strikes, keeping extra runners off base, and limiting the quality of contact that batters make. If he continues to do that, he’ll continue to be a big asset in the Astros rotation.