Brooks Raley: Average Major League Pitcher

I'm going to #StateYourUnpopularOpinion:  Brooks Raley is an average major league relief pitcher.

The first point to make here is that the idea the Brooks Raley is a competent at his job is the opinion of a minority of Astros fans, and small minority at that.  A quick twitter search for Brooks Raley finds opinions from Astros fans that range from anger 

Brooks Raley doesn’t need to be used in games that are close. This isn’t difficult.

— Michael Connor (@MC790) May 9, 2021

to despair 

Brooks Raley in with the game on the line pic.twitter.com/OciThNkbuz

— Roosh (@RooshWilliams) May 6, 2021

to acceptance 

Two things will survive a nuclear blast: cockroaches and Brooks Raley https://t.co/EGo57ggeww

— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) May 16, 2021

to fatalism.  

Watching Brooks Raley and Joe Smith with the game on the line is more cruel than any punishment Manfred could have dreamed of

— Tyler Stafford (@tylercstafford) May 6, 2021

And there is a good reason for all of these negative opinions on Brooks Raley. He has given up a bunch of runs this season--15 total, and 13 earned in 16 innings pitched. Raley has a 7.31 ERA, which can be charitably be characterized as bad, and more accurately characterized as "godawful." 

But, Raley's terribad ERA is misleading, and his underlying performance is better than the his runs total indicates.   First of all, Raley is striking batters out at a high rate. Raley has struck out more than one-third of all batters he has faced this season; 34% to be precise. That's 10% higher than the strikeout rate for MLB relievers this season, which is 24%.

Another indicator of Raley's talents as a reliever is his ability to induce soft contact. The average exit velocity when batters avoid striking out against Raley is 81.3 MPH. That is the 5th lowest in the majors (minimum of 25 "batted ball events," to use Baseball Savant's technical language). Raley does not give up hard contact on fly balls and line drives--his 87.2 MPH average exit velocity is 7th best in the majors. Raley does not give up hard contact on ground balls--his 73.1 MPH average exit velocity is 4th best in the majors. Only 26% of the balls hit against are "hard hit" balls--that is, hit over 95 MPH. That is 17th best in the majors.

So Brooks Raley is doing two really good things when he pitches. First, he is avoiding bats and striking guys out. And second, when batters make contact against him, it tends to be soft contact. These numbers are reflected in the slash line for batters who have faced Raley:.222/.310/.349. No one would want a hitter with those numbers in a key spot in the order; instead, you'd be looking to upgrade on that batter.

So why has Raley given up so many runs despite the combination of many strikeouts, soft contact, and a poor batting line for the opposition?  

One answer is that Raley has walked more batters than he should. Raley is walking 3.94 batters per nine innings pitched, up from 2.70 in 2020. He's put more batters on than he should.  But I think that's a secondary reason. 

The most important reason is that just about anybody who is getting on base against Raley is scoring. Raley has allowed 22 baserunners this season (14 by hit, 7 by walk, and 1 hit by pitch).  Of those 22 batters, 15 have come home to score. That's  68% of Raley's baserunners who have scored. For comparison, Astros pitchers as a whole have allowed 36% of the baserunners they have allowed to score. Heck, Joe Smith--who is pitching as bad as Astros Twitter assumes--has allowed only 9 of the 24 baserunners he has allowed to score.

If there is one plate appearance that is a microcosm of Raley's issues, it may be this one against the Yankees. Here, Aaron Hicks hits a ball 70 MPH off the bat, but he is able to find grass along the right field line. This single scored Gleyber Torres, who had reached on a looping liner to left, and advanced to 2nd on a walk. You can hear all the markers of soft contact in the language of Yankees play-by-play man Michael Kay ("punched out toward right field; it's gonna dunk in there"). 

Over this past week, Raley found a solution to the soft contact woes that have plagued him this season. Batters can't get bloop hits if they don't hit the ball at all. In his last 3 games, Raley has faced 13 batters and struck out 8 of them. This was of course punctuated by striking out the side against the Rangers yesterday. That kept the Rangers at bay and set up the Astro bats to break out for four runs in the bottom of the 8th, leading to the series sweep. 

I do not expect Raley to strike out nearly two out of every three batters he faces for the rest of the season--he was facing the two worst teams in the AL West this season. But what I do expect is that his terrible ERA will continue to come down to a more normal number as Raley continues to pitch well. Over the long run, the combination of many strikeouts and soft contact is a solid one for pitchers--even the ones that make you queasy when they enter the game.