The Bats Didn't Deliver in Arlington, but the Bullpen Takes the Blame

Here’s an understatement: it went poorly for the Astros this weekend. Houston’s nine lost all 3 games in Arlington, an outcome which is frustrating for two reasons: 1) the Rangers are not a very good baseball team, and 2) No self-respecting Astros fan wants to lose to the team up north once, much less three times in a row.

To my eyes, the blame for the poor showing this weekend falls primarily on the offense. The team slashed .228/.299/.281, with only 4 extra base hits across the 3-game slate. The team was even worse at key moments. The team was 5 for 33 (.152) with runners in scoring position.

Bregman and Correa couldn't deliver in the 10th on Sunday.

Notably poor was the offense’s performance on Sunday. Mike Foltynewicz entered the game with a 5.18 ERA, but the Astros managed only 3 singles and 2 bases on balls in seven scoreless innings. The offensive woes were also present in the 10^th inning. With runners on first and third and no outs, Carlos Correa popped out, Alex Bregman struck out, and Michael Brantley flew out to center. Not scoring in the top of the 10^th allowed the Rangers to win in the bottom of the 10^th despite not hitting a ball to the outfield.

Yet, despite the weak showing of the offense this weekend, the focus of Astros fans and media has been on the bullpen. Here are some headlines:

• “The Astros need bullpen upgrades, and their internal reinforcements might not be enough.” Jake Kaplan, The Athletic.
• “A bullpen in disarray.” Chandler Rome, Houston Chronicle.
• “With the Astros’ bullpen cratering, few immediate solutions exist,” Dan Martin, Crawfish Boxes.
• “Bullpen internal reinforcements might not be enough.” Andrew Gleinser, Climbing Tal’s Hill.
• “Oh the Horror, the Astros Bullpen Leads to a Sweep by the Rangers.” Locked on Astros Podcast

Both the professional beat writers and the fan-based blogs and podcasts all focused on the bullpen—not the offense. I’m not here to sing the praises of the bullpen. They gave up 10 runs in 13 2/3 IP, but there is some reason to think that number is unrepresentative of their efforts. Astros relievers struck out gave up 18 baserunners, but 10 scored. Five of the runs were unearned, including 2 of the ghost runners placed at 2B in extra innings. Four of the runs were scored in extra innings; which were only necessary because the Astros bats had not driven in an extra run in regulation.

The bullpen FIP for the Rangers series was 4.75.  Not good, but not a complete disaster. The Astros have had a 4.06 ERA and a 4.36 FIP on the season.  The effort this weekend was lousy, but not massively different than what we have seen this season.

Which leads to the question: why have Astros fans and media chosen to focus on bullpen in the face of the offense’s slump in Arlington? 

The reasons seem pretty simple.  First, it’s hard to bang on the offense because they are good. Astros are slashing .270/.335/.428, good for 1^st, 2^nd, and 2^nd in the American League. In the two weeks before the Rangers series, the offense had averaged 6.6 runs per game. There is nothing to “fix” in the Astros offense, and, as a result, there are no suggestions on moves to make to improve the offense.

The opposite is true with the bullpen—there are potential fixes to be made in who pitches in what circumstances. The bullpen has been a source of concern for Astro fans all season. Outside of Ryan Pressly, none of the Astro relievers has produced plenty of moments of wildness, hard hits, and dread among Astro fans.

There is hope for the Astro bullpen. Three Astro starting pitchers—Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, and Jose Urquidy—all appear ready to return to the starting rotation in the next week or two. This would create the opportunity to take a couple of Astro starters—who have produced fewer bouts of angst among Astros fans—and move them into the bullpen. Blake Taylor, a reliever, is also rehabbing at Sugarland.

Dusty could also reconsider who pitches in what roles in the bullpen. Ryne Stanek had developed into the Astros set-up man for Ryan Pressly after a hot start to the season. He’s struggled with command recently, and this may call for someone else to take that role—may I propose Brooks Raley. This produces another set of suggestions and questions from Astro fans, and is another reason that more focus went to the bullpen rather than the offense, after the Rangers sweep.

Regardless, this weekend does not change the basic dynamics of the Astros team. It’s an offense first team, led by its stars in the batting order. It has good but not great starting pitching, with a series of high floor pitchers in the rotation. Its bullpen is average, and that will remain true even if the Astros can get all of their pitchers healthy. That formula has staked the Astros to a winning record, and separation from the three worst teams in the AL West.

But it requires the offense to hit. They didn’t do it enough in Arlington. Let’s hope they get back to hitting tonight against the Dodgers.