Breathin' Orange Fire

They just haven't hit.  There's more complicated analysis that we can go through, but the Astros are down 3 games to 1 in the World Series because  they have scored only 11 runs in the 4 games than they have played. In their two games in Atlanta, they have scored 2 runs, losing a pair of games in which the pitching staff held the Braves to only 5 runs. With an offense as good as the Astros, that should be more than enough.   It is easy to find speculation, quick fix solutions, armchair psychology from Astro fans on social media, text threads, and conversations at sports bars across Houston.  Some of these discussions may be right, but most are wrong. Most are attempt to apply some type of theory or explanation to something that is simply what happens in a short samples.   Baseball games are turns of probability, and teams to try acquire and develop players who stack the dice in their favor. Better hitters are more likely to get on base, though most of ...

Some postseason games turn on a big hit late, or a pitcher getting out of a big jam to save a game. Some are won because relievers stem the tide in the middle innings to give the offense a chance to come back, and many are won today because a manager chooses the right reliever for the right spot, or the wrong one in the wrong spot.  Games 1 and 2 of the 2021 World Series had none of those elements. In each game, one team played a lot better than their opponent, and they won as a result. In Game 1, the Astros pitched poorly and hit poorly.  Or the Braves hit well and pitched well.  In Game 2, it was the opposite.  Win Probability--Game 1 In Game 1, the Braves jumped over Astros starter Framber Valdez early, touching him up for 5 runs, 8 hits including 2 home runs, and a walk. Eight of the 12 balls the Braves hit against Framber were hard hit--with an exit velocity over 90 mph.  The bullpen limited the Braves to a single run the rest of the way, but it did not aff...

Spurred by a big turnaround by their pitching staff in the last three games of the ALCS and an offense that has scored 5 or more run in 9 of their 10 playoff games, the Astros have advanced to the World Series.  They will be joined by the Braves, who upset the 106-win Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. And just like you watched on WTBS at 6:10 pm on a random Tuesday night in June 1985, it will be Braves taking on the Astros. No word on if Bob Knepper and Rick Mahler are available to be the starters. The Braves were once a familiar foe to the Astros. Both played in the National League West from its founding in 1969 to the three-division realignment of 1994. After that, the Braves were a frequent playoff opponent of the Astros. The two teams met five times in the NLDS between 1997 and 2005.  Today, that familiarity has disappeared. The move to the American League means we only play the Braves once every three years in interleague play, and a scheduled 2020 ...

Baseball was at the beginning of our relationship. Shortly I moved to New York in 2007 to take a job as a professor at John Jay College, CUNY, one of my colleagues—a Red Sox fan—invited me to go to a Red Sox bar in the middle of Manhattan to watch Yankees- Red Sox. And Erin, another new professor in our political science department, was also a Red Sox fan, so she was going to come with. Sounds great. The first colleague got delayed, so Erin and I took the subway to the Red Sox bar, had a great time, had our first two beers and great conversation before our other colleague got there. Earlier that summer, I looked the schedule and found out that the Astros had a September series at Shea Stadium. I bought two tickets before I got to New York, figuring one of my new colleagues would want to join me at a ballgame.  And since the Red Sox fan was single, a woman, and into baseball, it seemed obvious to invite her. And by the 4 th inning, I knew I wanted to ask Erin out on a formal date. ...

The Astros finished off the Red Sox on Friday night, winning Game 6 5-0.  The Astros won three straight to close out the series on the strength of their run prevention. Astros pitching allowed Boston batters a mere 3 runs, striking out 25 while allowing only 10 hits, 10 walks, and 1 hit batsman. Red Sox hitters slashed .111/.208/.244 in the last three games of the series. This is a big contrast to the first three games of the series, when the Red Sox scored 25 runs to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Astro pitchers allowed a slash line of .296/.374/.546. They gave up 32 hits to batsmen from Boston, including 6 doubles and 9 homers.  Who is responsible for the big turnaround? Perhaps it is Brent Strom. The 73-year-old came to the Astros coaching staff before Dusty Baker, but he came before even A.J. Hinch. Strom has led the Astros pitchers since 2014 and has developed a reputation as one of MLB's best pitching coaches. Despite being the age of a presidential candidate, he...

The Astros bashed the Red Sox for 9 runs on Wednesday evening in Boston, but the big story was the run prevention. The Astros finally shut down the Red Sox via a great performance from a starting pitcher. Framber Valdez went 8 innings and allowed only 5 baserunners--one homer, one double, one single, one walk, and one hit by pitch.  It's likely that baseball fans, and especially Astro fans, will refer to this game as the Framber Valdez game. But the story of the Astros victory today is larger than just Valdez. It was a team effort at run prevention on behalf of the entire Astros lineup today. The defense converted batted balls into outs, helped in large part by the ability of Valdez to induce ground balls and soft contact. Let's explore how this happened. The Astros Defensive Advantage Finally Showed Up Entering this series, the biggest advantage that the Astros had over the Red Sox was their superior defense. As I wrote in my ALCS preview, "The Astros have one of the bes...

In 2017, the Astros advanced to the World Series thanks to their starting pitching. In their four victories in that year's ALCS, Astro starters threw 28 innings and gave up only 1 run. In 2019, it was a similar story. The Astros tried to maximize the number of innings pitched by their trio of aces--Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke.  In many ways, those 2017 and 2019 teams were going against some of the prevailing trends in baseball, which placed less emphasis on the starting rotation. The Rays started using the opener in 2018--often with Ryne Stanek pitching the start of the game--to help ease the third time through the order penalty for their "bulk guys," and other teams followed suit. Managers started going to their relievers earlier and earlier, especially in playoff games, when necessity and regular off days combined to allow individual relievers to pitch nearly every day.  Last night, the Astros embraced modern baseball. They turned away from the idea ...

The Astros have advanced to their fifth straight American League Championship Series and will face a familiar foe. And while it is true that the Astros will play the Red Sox like they did in the 2017 DS and 2018 CS, I say that the Red Sox are a familiar foe because they look a lot like the Astros.  Their offense is one of the best in baseball because they have a very deep offense, and will start 8 players with an above average OPS+. Their pitching staff lacks a true ace, but have a rotation of #2, #3, and #4 starters that are capable of getting outs. They have a handful of trusted arms in the bullpen and a number of question marks.  Each of these sentences describes the Red Sox, but they also describe the Astros. A look at the numbers shows that the Astros are slightly better at both run scoring and run prevention than the Red Sox. From that perspective, they have an advantage in the talent on the roster.  But that edge in talent for the Astros is challenged by health of ...

In 1999, I was able to finish work meetings with clients early and could watch the last several innings of Game 3 of the Astros-Braves National League Division Series at a sports bar in Santa Cruz, CA. Where I got to watch the Astros build a rally in the bottom of the 10th inning, and Walt Weiss squelch it with a diving stop of a Tony Eusebio screamer up the middle and a throw home to force Ken Caminiti at home.  And I reacted as you might expect, slamming my hand down in anger on the bar, and knocking over a barstool as I stepped outside to process what always happened to the Astros in the playoffs--something bad in the Division Series. The 1999 loss to the Braves (they won Game 3 in the 12th and closed out the Astros in the Dome in Game 4) marked the 3rd straight NLDS loss by the Astros; they went 2-9 in those years. They would go on to win the NL Central in 2001 and then promptly got swept by the Braves (again) in the DS.   I was 7 and 8 when the Astros lost their firs...

In my ALDS preview , I highlighted the need for Astros hitters to make contact and for Astros pitchers to force contact, by avoiding walk. I then wrote that "a key reason why contact matters so much in this series is the large advantage the Astros have on defense." I've written some takes that have not held up over time.  But this one did, as the defensive differences in the 7th inning proved pivotal to the Astros 9-4 victory today at Minute Maid Park. In the top of the 7th, Dusty Baker brought on Ryne Stanek to face 9-1-2 in the White Sox lineup. He responded by striking out the first two batters, but an ambush single by Luis Robert and a walk to Jose Abreu created a jam. But the walk didn't hurt the Astros in the end. Stanek forced contact from White Sox batter Yasmani Grandal (that's good), but it was hard contact. Grandal hit it at 101.8 MPH and a 16 degree launch angle (that's bad). Balls hit at that exit velocity and launch angle are hits 59% of the time...

In previewing the ALDS, I wrote that the challenge for the Astros pitching staff was to “force contact…more contact on the mound means fewer walks.”     Lance McCullers said “Challenge accepted.”   This afternoon at Minute Maid Park, Lance McCullers walked no White Sox, and allowed only 4 singles and one hit batter while going 6 2/3 innings. It is tempting to look at that line and say that McCullers pitched like an ace. But I look at his 4 strikeouts and 31% CSW (which is the percentage of pitches that were Called Strikes or Whiff), and see a performance that is not quite at ace level.    Instead, I see a performance that was exactly what the Astros need to defeat the White Sox this series. Lance's performance today was not marked by swing-and-miss stuff. He got 9 whiffs on his 104 pitches; that's an 8.7% swinging strike rate, below his season long rate of 11.6%. As noted, he only struck out 4 batters.   What is was notable for was getting soft conta...