An Unfamiliar Foe and a Different Style: The High Contact Astros Take on the Big Power of the Braves
Spurred by a big turnaround by their pitching staff in the last three games of the ALCS and an offense that has scored 5 or more run in 9 of their 10 playoff games, the Astros have advanced to the World Series.
They will be joined by the Braves, who upset the 106-win Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. And just like you watched on WTBS at 6:10 pm on a random Tuesday night in June 1985, it will be Braves taking on the Astros. No word on if Bob Knepper and Rick Mahler are available to be the starters.
The Braves were once a familiar foe to the Astros. Both played in the National League West from its founding in 1969 to the three-division realignment of 1994. After that, the Braves were a frequent playoff opponent of the Astros. The two teams met five times in the NLDS between 1997 and 2005.
Today, that familiarity has disappeared. The move to the American League means we only play the Braves once every three years in interleague play, and a scheduled 2020 meeting was cancelled due to the pandemic.
While the series lacks the familiarity of our NL West clashes of my 1980s childhood or the NLDS showdowns of my early adulthood (shoutout to Chris Burke), it matches two teams with good offenses and mid-level pitching staffs. The biggest difference between the two teams is in the way that they score runs. The Astros make lots of contact and have a high batting average. The Braves rely on big power and hitting home runs. Which style works best over the next seven days will determine who lifts the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the Series.
Offenses That Get It Done Differently
Both teams have among the best offenses in their leagues, but the methods they use to score runs is quite different.
The Astros offense centers around high levels of contact. They had the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the majors, and used their ability to make contact to bat .267 as a team, also the highest in the majors. That high batting average boosted them to the highest on base percentage and the 3rd highest slugging percentage in the majors this season, despite more modest numbers for taking walks and hitting home runs.
The Astros bring a lineup that is 7 deep in high quality major league hitters. Each of their first seven hitters had OPS+s 13% better than league average. Chas McCormick is likely to bat 8th when the series is at Minute Maid Park, and he had a 107 OPS+ in 320 PAs this season.
Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley are the archetype of Astro hitters. Gurriel (.319) and Brantley (.311) finished 1-2 in batting average in the AL, and those high batting averages are driven by their skill at making contact. Gurriel has the 3rd lowest strikeout rate among qualified AL batters at 11.2%; Brantley's rate is even lower at 10.4% (2nd lowest). Neither has a huge walk rate or huge power, but by making contact and hitting line drives, they are above average hitters that drive a lineup.
The Braves scored 4.9 runs per game this season, 3rd best in the National League. What do the Braves do to score runs? They hit home runs. They were third in the majors in homers with year with 239. Their lineup features 4 players who hit 30 home runs in the 2021 regular season--Adam Duvall, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. They have two other who hit 27 homers--Dansby Swanson and Jorge Soler. They slug the ball, and they have some of the classic problems that big sluggers do. They are very prone to strikeouts (22nd in MLB in strikeout rate) and the have a low batting average (.244, which is exactly the MLB average).
The chart at the right shows the two teams starting lineup of batters ranked by OPS+. The ability of Astro hitters to make contact and reach first base helps to boost offensive contributions across the board. The Astros have eight hitters better than league average, which is set at 100. The low BA ways of the Braves erodes their offensive results, even accounting for their ability to hit homers. They have only 4 batters above league average. But when the Braves his home runs, they do well. And as the numbers show, they hit a lot of home runs.
Two Similar Pitching Staffs
The two pitching staffs line up quite similarly when you look at season long numbers.
Both teams allow 4.1 per game on average, and strike out about 24% of the batters that they face. The two pitching staffs gave up a similar number of home runs (the Astros gave up 4 more).
For the Astros, the biggest concern is walk rate. The Astros are in the bottom third in the majors at allowing walks. The Astros were allowing 4.1 walks per nine innings in their first 8 playoff games, and high walk totals were a big reason for their pitching woes early in the series against the Red Sox. The great starts of Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia in Games 5 and 6 featured much better control. The two starters each walked only 1 batter and the bullpen added 1 more. Combined, they cut the teams BB/9 rate to 1.5. The Braves are a good, but not great team, at drawing walks. The ability to reduce baserunners is key for the Astros.
For the Braves, their pitching staff is consistently located in the top half in the key pitching categories. The are average at striking batters out, but also average at walking batters. Their batted ball numbers are all 9th or 10th best in baseball. Good, but not outstanding.
The Braves have three high quality starting pitchers in Charlie Morton (132 ERA+), Max Fried (145 ERA+), and Ian Anderson (124 ERA+). They will start 6 of the potential 7 games in the series. In the Division Series against the anemic Brewers offense, the Braves got 5 and 6 innings from these starters when fully rested. In the NLCS against the Dodgers offense, the Braves were compelled to pull their starters earlier and turn to their bullpen. Getting the Braves best pitchers out of the game early will be a big key for the Astros.
Is There a Defensive Advantage?
In the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Astros had a clear advantage on defense. It was a modest advantage against the White Sox, and a distinct advantage over the Red Sox. In the World Series against the Braves, it is hard to figure out if there is an advantage for the Astros, or how big it is.
Defensive statistics are notoriously finicky. And there is no better demonstration of that the defensive statistics for the Atlanta Braves. By Fielding Runs Above Average, they are one of the best defenses in baseball. And by Ultimate Zone Rating, they are in the bottom half of the league on defense. Other defensive measures are in between. By Defensive Runs Saved and BABIP Allowed, they are in the top third of the majors. But Outs Above Average shows them to be in the league's middle third of teams. It is hard to draw a sound conclusion on the Braves defense, other than to say that it is definitely good. Whether it is great depends on your metric.
Defensive metrics are clearer in their conclusion about the Astros--they have one of the best defensive teams in baseball. They are one of the most talented teams in baseball at converting batted balls into outs. Part of why it is so important for Astros pitchers to avoid walks is that they gain a great advantage if they can get the opponents to swing at pitches. If the opponent hits it, the Astros are likely to catch it and retire the batter.
Evenly Matched Teams--and The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot
Who has the advantage in this series? Offensively, it is clear that the Astros have an advantage. Their offense has scored more runs this season, and their lineup is deeper with better hitters. But the advantage will change quickly if the Braves can hit home runs, especially with men on base. The Braves have big power up and down their lineup.
Overall, the two pitching staffs seem evenly matched. The Astros defensive skill gives them an advantage if their pitchers can force the Braves to put the ball in the field of play. But Braves batters hit a lot of home runs and Astro pitchers walk a lot of batters. Those outcomes are bad for the Astros, and their pitchers need to avoid both.
Lance McCullers will not be healthy enough to pitch in the World Series, which will force the Astros to use Jose Urquidy for an extra start and either Jake Odorizzi or Zack Greinke in Game 4. Accounting for this, the Braves have a slight advantage in pitching.
Overall, the Astros offensive advantage seems to be the strongest one we will see in this series. But it is not a huge advantage, and may be mitigated by McCullers's injury. I expect the Astros to hit well, but the Braves are just as capable of homering their way to big innings.
In Moneyball, Michael Lewis quotes Billy Beane as saying "the playoffs are a crapshoot." That book is nearly 20 years old, yet that wisdom has stood the test of time. The advantages for the Astros are there, but seem slight. As a result, the series could go either way.
Comments