Skip to main content

The Astros Defensive Edge Proves Pivotal in the 7th: My Game 2 Analysis

In my ALDS preview, I highlighted the need for Astros hitters to make contact and for Astros pitchers to force contact, by avoiding walk. I then wrote that "a key reason why contact matters so much in this series is the large advantage the Astros have on defense."

I've written some takes that have not held up over time.  But this one did, as the defensive differences in the 7th inning proved pivotal to the Astros 9-4 victory today at Minute Maid Park.

In the top of the 7th, Dusty Baker brought on Ryne Stanek to face 9-1-2 in the White Sox lineup. He responded by striking out the first two batters, but an ambush single by Luis Robert and a walk to Jose Abreu created a jam. But the walk didn't hurt the Astros in the end. Stanek forced contact from White Sox batter Yasmani Grandal (that's good), but it was hard contact. Grandal hit it at 101.8 MPH and a 16 degree launch angle (that's bad). Balls hit at that exit velocity and launch angle are hits 59% of the time.  But not today. Kyle Tucker raced into right center, lept, and made a backhand grab of the ball, saving at least one run and ending the inning. 

Kyle Tucker runs down Grandal's liner in the gap.

In the bottom of the 7th, the Astros made contact.  Well, Michael Brantley didn't, striking out against lefty Aaron Bummer. But Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez all found holes in the porous White Sox defense to give the Astros a 1 run lead. Tony La Russa called on Craig Kimbrel, one of his two bullpen aces. Kimbrel retired Yuli Gurriel on a flyout to right, bringing up Correa.

Kimbrel is a strikeout pitcher, punching out 42.6% of all batters he faced this season. But Correa only strikes out 18.1% of the time, and his ability to make contact paid off again. He hit a ball similar to Grandal--106.1 MPH at 15 degrees, an expected batting average of .660. But he hit it closer to the right fielder--the dreaded at-'em ball. 

But White Sox rightfielder Leury Garcia did not get a good read on the ball, turning toward his left, spinning all the way around, and then waving at the ball that he should have caught. Bregman and Alvarez scored. Garcia's bad defensive play then brought up Kyle Tucker, who also made hard contact into the Crawford Boxes. The Astros top seven hitters had batted that inning, six made contact, five reach based, and five scored.  The Astros win probability was now 98.6%, and the rest of the game was mostly a formality.

It inspired national baseball reporters to sing the praises of the Astros offense. 

Take 1:

 Take 2:

And Take 3, with a full summary.  

But the defensive difference allowed for the lineup to do its thing. Tucker is credited with 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average. The White Sox fielding numbers are worse; they are credited with -43 Defensive Runs Saved (29th in the majors) and -4 Outs Above Average (21st best).  Garcia is credited with -2 Defensive Runs Saved and -3 Outs Above Average. He's not a terrible defender, but you would certainly rather have Tucker going after a fly ball than Garcia, and it showed.

For the Astros, if they avoid the walk they can force contact and rely on their defense. It worked in the top of the 7th. And if they avoid strikeouts and make contact at the plate, they can exploit the White Sox defensive deficiencies.  They turned the game in the 7th inning today due to their advantage on defense.

* * *

One clear advantage that the White Sox had walking into the series was the bullpen. While the Astros have one high level ace in Ryan Pressly, the White Sox have two in Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks. The Astros have good set-up men in Ryne Stanek and Kendall Graveman, but White Sox relievers such as Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer gave their side a deeper and more reliable set of options out of the bullpen. 

That was an advantage that did not bear out in the results today. The White Sox bullpen gave up 5 runs, 7 hits, and 1 walk in 3.2 innings pitched. White Sox relievers struck out only 3 batters (two by Hendriks in garbage time in the bottom of the 8th) and had a Win Probability Added of -0.479. 

Astros relievers threw 4.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, and 2 walks, white striking out 5. More importantly, they gave up--with a big assist to the defense--0 runs and had a Win Probability Added of .054. It was not a dominant performance, but it was certainly an effective one. The bullpen kept the White Sox down, navigating around traffic in the 7th, 8th, and 9th. 

The bullpen should be an advantage for the White Sox, and as the game stayed close going into the final third, I worried that the Astros bullpen would crack before the White Sox 'pen.  I'm happy that I was wrong. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Rays-esque Trade by a former Rays Front Office Guy

James Click is a product of the Rays front office. It showed on Thursday.  Click made a surprising move right before the trade deadline sending starting CF Myles Straw to the Indians for reliever Phil Maton and minor league catcher Yanier Diaz.  The Rays are well known for trying to trade players at the peak of their value from the surplus areas of their team. The Rays did this again yesterday when the traded their closer Diego Castillo to the Mariners for another reliever and a prospect at 3B. Few expected Castillo to be traded, but having received excellent performances from a number of relievers, the Rays dealt from their surplus to gain a prospect.  Click did something similar here, seeing a surplus (even if a small one) in his stable of center fielders. The Astros will now make Chas McCormick their regular center fielder, and have called up Jake Myers from Sugarland to serve as the team's fourth outfielder.  McCormick has been a revelation this year as a fourth ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Phil Maton: High Spin, High Movement, Middling Results

The trade was an absolute shocker. While we all knew that the Astros needed bullpen help at the trade deadline, none of us expected them to get it by trading their starting centerfielder. In exchange for Myles Straw, the Astros acquired another bullpen arm--Phil Maton.  My analysis of the trade has tended to focus on the centerfield situation for the Astros. At the time, I argued that James Click thought that he had a surplus in centerfield with Straw, Chas McCormick, and Jake Meyers. In analyzing whether Jake Meyers could take over as the everyday centerfielder, I noted Click's analysis that "McCormick and Meyers would produce as well as the combination of Straw and McCormick...has worked as planned." Phil Maton's spin rates are better than his results. James Click identified a surplus at one position on his roster and used that strength to try to plug a weakness at another spot. Six weeks later, we know Click was right about having a surplus in the outfield, but we...
Post a Comment
Read more