In 2017, the Astros advanced to the World Series thanks to their starting pitching. In their four victories in that year's ALCS, Astro starters threw 28 innings and gave up only 1 run. In 2019, it was a similar story. The Astros tried to maximize the number of innings pitched by their trio of aces--Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke.
In many ways, those 2017 and 2019 teams were going against some of the prevailing trends in baseball, which placed less emphasis on the starting rotation. The Rays started using the opener in 2018--often with Ryne Stanek pitching the start of the game--to help ease the third time through the order penalty for their "bulk guys," and other teams followed suit. Managers started going to their relievers earlier and earlier, especially in playoff games, when necessity and regular off days combined to allow individual relievers to pitch nearly every day.
Last night, the Astros embraced modern baseball. They turned away from the idea that a starting pitcher needs to be an ace, or to go deep into a game. Instead, Dusty Baker relied on his bullpen to get him a lot of outs, using 7 different relievers for an average of less than an inning each. Using pitchers for short bursts like this maximizes their effectiveness.
It worked. There was no individual pitching hero in this game, in the way that Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve were on the offensive side. But the collective hero was the Astros bullpen.
 |
| Cristian Javier and the Astros bullpen was very good last night |
They went 6.1 innings, and allowed only 1 run, 4 hits, 1 walk while striking out 8 Red Sox. They threw 99 pitches, 67 of them for strikes. If your starting pitcher did that, you would describe him as an ace. The bullpen took the role tonight of an ace, with the numbers to match.
The decision to rely on the bullpen tonight was partly a recognition of the trends we see throughout major league baseball. The Dodgers won their NLDS series on Thursday by using not one, but two openers before inserting Julio Urias into the game. Red Sox starters averaged just over 4 innings per start in their ALDS victory over the Rays, and they pulled Chris Sale tonight after 2.2 innings.
Dave Roberts and Alex Cora have adjusted their pitching strategies to reflect the new wisdom developed by even more analytically sophisticated front offices. It is not surprising that Dusty Baker, whose reputation for old school thinking is highly underserved, has followed suit.
The choice to go to the bullpen also reflects that the quality of the starting pitching on the Astros has declined in recent years. Sabrmetric research has found that pitchers fare worse the third time through the batting order. This applies to all pitchers, but when your starter is Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole, this penalty takes them from awesome to really good.
But the Astros no longer have a pitcher available to them of that stature. Verlander is injured and Cole is in New York. The Astros best starter, Lance McCullers, is a good pitcher, but not of this quality; further, a forearm strain kept him off of the roster for the ALCS.
So when Framber Valdez was wild (3 walks) and not able to miss bats, Dusty Baker was aggressive in removing him from the game with 2 outs in the 3rd inning. And the move paid off immediately, as Yimi Garcia struck out Christian Arroyo to limit the damage and keep the Astros within striking distance.
The decision to emphasize the bullpen was made not just last night by Dusty Baker, but is reflected in the decisions the front office made throughout the season. The team shifted Cristian Javier to the bullpen back in May in an effort to create a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen. Javier went two scoreless innings tonight.
James Click put all of his attention at the trade deadline on the bullpen, acquiring three new arms that all pitched effectively tonight--Yimi Garca, Phil Maton, and Kendall Graveman. These moves were made with an eye toward nights like last night.
Modern baseball has evolved so that managers elect to use more relievers--more in the game and to get more outs. With their collection of aces in previous years, the Astros resisted this trend. No more. They have embraced this style of baseball, and we will continue to see it used for the rest of the 2021 playoffs.
Comments