The news came first from a reliable source--his brother Ben Verlander.
🚨IT’S OFFICIAL🚨@JustinVerlander is signing with Houston Astros!!
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) November 17, 2021
And then, eight minutes later, it came from an even more reliable source--Mark Berman.
MLB source: @JustinVerlander has reached an agreement on a one-year deal with the #Astros worth $25 million, with a player option for a second year. https://t.co/9fF9KULOfj
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) November 17, 2021
Justin Verlander is back in Houston.
In my off season preview, I wrote that the Astros rotation “lacks a “true ace,” but is deep with quality major league pitchers. The rotation proved effective in 2021 because the Astros were able to run out an average to above average starter every day….With that baseline, the front office could consider signing a top-of-the-line pitcher who could pitch Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS.”
Meet the new ace, the same as the old ace.
So what is the upside of the new Verlander contract and what is the downside? I explore both.
The Upside
Come on, we all know the upside.
Justin Verlander is a Hall of Fame level pitcher. He’s won two Cy Young Awards, finished 2nd on 3 occasions, and 3rd once. And the addition of Verlander to the 2017 team got them over the top, especially in that year’s ALCS, where Verlander gave up only 1 run in 16 innings on the hill.
The Astros signed Verlander for October.
When we last saw Verlander pitch a full season, he won the Cy Young Award, leading the American League in wins (21), innings pitched (223), WHIP (0.80), and K/BB ratio (7.14). The season before that, he finished 2nd in Cy Young voting.
It is probably too much to expect Verlander to pitch at that level again, as he will turn 39 in February and is coming off Tommy John surgery. But Verlander showed few signs of age before that. He led the majors in WHIP, fewest hits per nine innings, and strikeout to walk ratio in his last full season. He increased his strikeout rate and reduced his walk rate in his time in Houston from his already strong career numbers.
For what it's worth, Steamer projects Verlander for a 3.62 ERA in 29 starts in 2022. They project him to strike out 10.9 batters and walk 2.2 batters every nine innings. Both of those stats are above his careers numbers (9.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9), but are declines from his numbers in 2018 and 2019 when he was one of the top pitchers in baseball. Steamer projects Verlander for 3.6 fWAR, which is 18th best in baseball.
Of course, the certainty of that projection is very low. Verlander could go lower than that, as he is older and coming off a major injury. But he could exceed the projection, as he is well-known for his dogged work ethic and pitching smarts. Betting on old pitchers brings risks, but if any old pitcher can buck the odds, Verlander is the one to bet on.
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| It won't be hard to imagine this free agent signing in an Astros uniform |
Verlander could also underperform the WAR projection because he does not meet the 175 innings Steamer projects for him. And that would not be a big deal for the Astros or their fans.
The Astros signed Verlander for October, and the depth of their rotation means that they can give him time throughout the season as needed or go to a 6-man rotation when health permits.
As such, Verlander is a luxury good. If he struggles with command early in his return, the team can take time to get him right knowing they will pitch an average to above average starter while Verlander rests, rehabs, or works his way back into form.
The Astros signed Verlander to pitch in October, and they can and should monitor his usage with an eye toward having him peak in the Fall.
The Downside
There are two clear downsides to the Verlander signing--he's old for a baseball player and he's coming back from reconstructive surgery on his elbow.
As we all know, Father Time is undefeated. And Astro fans saw his work this season as Zack Greinke declined in performance throughout the season and was relegated to the bullpen for the series against the White Sox.
And Tommy John surgery is no joke, and it has harmed the careers of many pitchers much younger than Verlander. In his writeup on the Verlander contract today at Fangraphs, Brendan Gawloski posted a chart the nine pitcher who had TJS at age 37 or older and returned to the majors..
- Eight of the nine pitchers on this list was significantly worse when they returned and pitched only a few more innings before they retired.
- And none of these nine pitchers seems like a good comp for Verlander. It's a list with lots of relievers (John Franco, Joe Nathan, Rafael Betancourt, Mike Fetters, Gary Lavelle) and the ultimate soft tosser (Jamie Moyer). While the list is not encouraging, it's also not a list of pitchers with anyone close to Verlander’s talents, or who received such a big commitment from a team to be in their rotation.
- Shoutout to Arthur Rhodes, who came back better from TJS at age 37.
The chart is at the right. And I have three observations about it.
The terms of Verlander’s new contract also present the Astros with potential downside risk.
While the initial reports above listed it as a one year contract with an option year, I think a better way to understand Verlander’s contract as a 2 year deal worth $50 million with an opt-out after the first season. The Astros are on the hook for 2 years, but Verlander gets the choice of whether to take them up on the second year.
We of course know that risks of signing an older pitcher to a two-year contract from the last time the Astros did this--with Justin Verlander. In March 2019, The Astros gave Verlander a two year contract for the 2020 and 2021 season at $33 million a year. He pitched for 6 innings of that contract before injuring his "forearm," going through TJ, and spending all of the 2021 rehabbing from that surgery.
So the possibility that the Astros get nothing for their investment in Verlander is real. It will depend on Verlander's health.
His recovery has proceeded enough for Verlander to have a showcase in Florida in front of scouts earlier this month, and reports were glowing. Verlander sat at 94 MPH on his fastball (close to his usual velocity of 97 MPH) and was able to throw all of his pitches. Chandler Rome quoted one scout who attended's quick assessment of Verlander: "He's ready."
Astros fans certainly hope so. Signing any pitcher to a high dollar contract is a risk, much less a 39 year old one coming off of Tommy John surgery.
That risk is mitigated by the fact that the Astros do not need Verlander to have an effective rotation that can get them into the playoffs and take them on a long run once there. The 2021 Astros rotation was made up of #2, #3, and #4 starters.
If Verlander does not return to ace form, the Astros can certainly survive it. They survived his injury in 2020 and 2021. But the rotation could use a true ace to anchor them in October. Verlander was that for the Astros. Here's hoping he can be again.
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