Money to Spend. A Preference for Short Term Contract. Free Agent Targets. My Offseason Preview for Astro Fans
The Astros enter the 2021-22 offseason better off than 28 teams in Major League Baseball. They won a pennant and reached the World Series. They also enter in the same place as 29 other teams—trying to win the title that eluded them in the previous season.
The Almost Certain Lockout
To understand what will happen this offseason, it is important to understand two elements. The first is that whatever moves they make this offseason will probably be done in a rush of a week or so. The reason for that is the looming lockout. The MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, and it seems unlikely that the players and owners will reach an agreement by then as there is no financial pressure to do so on that date.
But whenever the lockout is resolved (hopefully in late February or early March so that Opening Day does not have to be delayed), there will be a rush across MLB to make free agent signings and trades in a short period of time. It will look more like an NBA offseason, with the exception that the moves will be made during Spring Training, rather than months before players report to ready for the season.
The Payroll
The second thing to know is the Astros philosophy toward their payroll. They are willing to spend money, but they do not want to give out long-term contracts to players. Let me deal with each of those two sentences in turn.
If you listen to Astros fans for long enough, you will occasionally hear a complaint that Jim Crane does not spend enough money. But a review of the Astros payroll over Jim Crane’s ownership shows that he is quite willing to run a payroll that approaches (and in one case goes over) the luxury tax threshold.
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| Data from Cot's Baseball Contracts https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/ compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/ |
The chart at the right shows the Astros payroll since Crane
bought the team after the 2011 season. After an initial decline in payroll as
part of the team’s rebuild, the Astros payroll increased every season from 2013
to 2020. The Astros five straight appearances in the ALCS was built on a
foundation of homegrown cost-controlled players. But as those players entered arbitration
and the team needed to acquire front line pitching, the payroll went up. In
2020, it exceeded the luxury tax threshold of $210 million. There was a slight
decline in 2021, but basically to the luxury tax threshold.
While it’s possible the payroll will decline some in 2022, in a press conference at the end of last week, Crane said the payroll would remain “where we’ve been…The budget will be at the top of baseball…We’ll be right in that range [of the luxury tax threshold].
In short, there is every reason to expect the Astros to spend money this offseason.
But the Astros also have now shown a propensity over Jim Crane’s ownership to avoid contracts of over 5 years in length. The Astros have signed four of their core players from the 2017 World Series winner to contract extensions—and the three longest were for five years. These were the contracts the signed with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Lance McCullers (the other was a 2 year extension for Justin Verlander).
The five-year limit avoids the perils of paying an aging player for the decline years of his career and allows for the team to have maintain payroll flexibility across time. But it limits the players the Astros can go after this offseason.
The Consequences of the Astros Payroll Philosophy
There are two major consequences of the Astros willingness to spend money but unwillingness to give out contracts longer than 5 years.
1. It is hard to re-sign Carlos Correa with this philosophy. Last week, news leaked of an Astros contract offer to Correa for 5 years. All indications are that Correa has turned down the offer, in large part because he will almost certainly get offers for similar annual value on the free agent market, but for 8 or 10 years.
The Astros rule that they do not give out more than 5 year contracts has a solid logic to it, but if there is any player on which to make an exception, a young player who plays a premium defensive position well seems to be the appropriate type. But every indication is that the Astros will not make an exception to their rule, and a team without that rule will sign Correa.
2. They have money to target high level players this offseason. This philosophy is not all doom and gloom for us Astros fans. Between Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Carlos Correa, Kendall Graveman, and Yimi Garcia, the Astros have about $70 million coming off the payroll. They have money to spend. But with their preference for shorter contracts, that means they can target players willing to sign shorter contracts, even if they play high dollar for them.
The extension that Verlander signed for the 2020 and 2021 seasons are a model. Verlander signed a contract for a high salary ($33 million per season) but for a short duration (2 years). Verlander could only get a short term contract because of his age—those were his age 37 and 38 seasons. So older players of high quality could be the target for the Astros. Or players who find themselves shuffled down in value in the market and want to sign a short term contract to re-establish their value. These are the type of players the Astros will target.
The Roster Situation
Even anticipating that Carlos Correa will sign elsewhere this offseason, the Astros still have a deep team with only a handful of holes. It gives them the flexibility to focus on players who can help them in the playoffs next season, rather than on players they need to fill an immediate hole.
The obvious exception is at shortstop. At the moment, Roster Resource lists Aledmys Diaz as the Astros starting shortstop. He could play more at shortstop next season, but most expect that Jeremy Pena, a top prospect, will take over at shortstop next season if the team does not add a shortstop over the offseason. It’s the biggest concern on the roster right now.
But outside of shortstop, the Astros seem to be in good shape among their position players. They have six hitters capable of reaching the All Star game next season (Gurriel, Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Tucker, and Alvarez). Martin Maldanado signed a 1 year contract extension in the Spring, so he’ll be the starting catcher and the #9 hitter again. In 2021, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers proved themselves to be “for real” as major league players; they’ll share centerfield next season.
At the moment, there are six options for the rotation under contract for next season on the major league roster—Lance McCullers, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Jake Odorizzi, and Cristian Javier. This rotation lacks a “true ace,” but is deep with quality major league pitchers. The rotation proved effective in 2021 because the Astros were able to run out an average to above average starter every day. They should be able to do that again in 2022.
With that baseline, the front office could consider signing a top-of-the-line pitcher who could pitch Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS. That would be the only move in the rotation that would make sense. Get the ace that you lack, or spend the money elsewhere.
Zack Greinke is a free agent, and I do not expect the Astros to make an offer to him. With six starters, the Astros could consider trading one of their starters. The most likely candidate to trade is Odorizzi, but I do not expect them to do this because Odorizzi has limited trade value, and any deal for him would mostly be a salary dump.
The area that the Astros are most likely to address in the offseason is the bullpen. At the moment, there are five relievers on the major league roster—Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Blake Taylor, and Pedro Baez (remember him; he signed a 2-year contract). So there are openings here.
There are a number of reliever candidates on the 40 man roster—Josh James, Andre Scrubb, Kent Emanuel, Enoli Parades, Bryan Abreu Seth Martinez, Brandon Bielak, Peter Solomon, Tyler Ivey. We will see some or all of these guys in the bullpen next year, and the final three could be spot starters.
But there is clearly room in the bullpen and in the budget to pursue a high paid and high-quality reliever.
Potential Free Agent Targets
Based on my analysis of the Astros payroll philosophy and their roster, I have identified several free agents the Astros could target this offseason. I’m certainly not predicting that the Astros will pursue any or all of these players, but they fit the pattern of players who could fit the Astros payroll philosophy and positional needs.
Trevor Story—The Rockies star brings great power from the shortstop position and plays solid defense. Story seems a potential candidate to get shuffled down the pecking order of free agent shortstops, clearly behind Correa, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. In that situation, he might be willing to sign a one-year contract and go back into the market next year in more favorable circumstances. That may not be a likely scenario, but if it occurs, the Astros would be a strong candidate to pounce.
Javier Baez—Baez plays great
defense, has good power, and has great baseball instinct for everything…except
strike zone judgment. He strikes out a ton but walks little. This move would
prioritize one Astros strength (defense) and sacrifice some of another (contact
rate).
Starting Pitching. As mentioned above, the Astros have depth in their rotation. So they do not benefit from signing another #3 starter. But they could use an ace, especially in next year’s playoffs. Fortunately, this year’s free agent class features three starters who fit into the Astros needs.
Justin Verlander Well, we know what he would look like in an Astros uniform. Verlander ended up pitching only 6 innings on that two year extension he signed for 2020 and 2021. He had Tommy John surgery last September but had a showcase yesterday in which he appeared quite healthy. We know what he can do in the playoffs, assuming he is healthy. The Astros did extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. He seems unlikely to accept the qualifying offer, but that offer means that whoever signs Verlander will owe draft pick compensation to the Astros. Since the Astros would owe it to themselves, it costs them less to sign Verlander than others.
Max Scherzer If you can’t sign one Hall of Famer, why not sign the other. Scherzer is two years younger than Verlander, and had a great season in 2021. We also know what he can do in the playoffs, unfortunately.
Clayton Kershaw. Or sign the other Hall of Famer. Kershaw was injured and missed the playoffs. He’s the youngest of this group, so he may fetch a longer term deal than Verlander or Scherzer (who are unlikely to get a deal longer than 2 years). But at 34, it won’t be the five year deal we gave McCullers.
Bullpen. As noted, we have clear needs here, and the budget room to acquire a top player
Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel is not a free agent; the White Sox picked up his option for 2022, but their goal is to trade him. Kimbrel has 1 year left on his contract for $16 million. It’s a lot for a reliever and you have to give up players, but Kimbrel is an excellent reliever and fits a clear need for the Astros.
Collin McHugh. McHugh had an excellent 2021 in the bullpen for the Rays, but they are unlikely to spend on a free agent reliever. He and his wife still like the Astros, and he would definitely fit in Houston.
Kendall Graveman. The big trade acquisition at the deadline is now a free agent, but he could step right back into his job as the 8th inning guy.
Raisel Iglesias/Kenley Jansen. Both are free agents and will probably be able to command multi-year deals. But they are options to improve the bullpen
Mark Melancon/Kirby Yates/Aaron Loup. The next tier of free agent relievers. All three have had great success in the bullpen and could fill key roles for the Astros. All will probably get 1 year deals.
Wildcards. None of these moves below seem front burner, and several would require defensive adjustments. But they have intrigue on ways to improve the Astros.
Seiya Suzuki. Japan’s best power hitter plans to play in the majors next year. ZIPS projects him for a 118 OPS+ and 2.2 WAR. If Click projects him higher than that, one could sign him and push Kyle Tucker to centerfield. It’s a play for more offense.
Trade with the A’s for one of Olson, Chapman, or Laureano. The budget conscious A’s are widely expected to enter a fire sale in the offseason. Their big three offensive stars could be had in a deal. A move for Olson or Chapman would improve defense at their position, but force others to weaker defensive positions. But a move for Laureano could improve centerfield. I don’t think these are likely, but worth keeping an eye on.
Trade with the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara. They also have Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez on the bloc, but Alcantara is the best one. The Marlins have a strong young core of pitching, and their goal in a trade would not be saving money, but redirecting resources to their position players. The Astros may not be a match, but it is a deal worth exploring.
Conclusion
Mike Petriello of MLB.com began looking at the offseason by seeing where teams stand based on the players that they have under contract at the start of the offseason. Using Depth Charts projections from Fangraphs, he ranked each team by projected fWAR for the 2022 season. The chart is below.
The Astros begin the offseason with the sixth highest
projected WAR for the 2022 season, and the tops in the American League West. Good
moves can supplement this strong place (though of course, other contenders will
increase their projected WAR as well).
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