The trade was an absolute shocker. While we all knew that the Astros needed bullpen help at the trade deadline, none of us expected them to get it by trading their starting centerfielder. In exchange for Myles Straw, the Astros acquired another bullpen arm--Phil Maton.
My analysis of the trade has tended to focus on the centerfield situation for the Astros. At the time, I argued that James Click thought that he had a surplus in centerfield with Straw, Chas McCormick, and Jake Meyers. In analyzing whether Jake Meyers could take over as the everyday centerfielder, I noted Click's analysis that "McCormick and Meyers would produce as well as the combination of Straw and McCormick...has worked as planned."
James Click identified a surplus at one position on his roster and used that strength to try to plug a weakness at another spot. Six weeks later, we know Click was right about having a surplus in the outfield, but we also need to evaluate how he did in addressing the weakness on that team. That is, how is Phil Maton doing? 
Phil Maton's spin rates are better than his results.
So far, Maton's career as an Astro is middling. He has posted numbers near league average in a number of different categories. But Maton has elite skills--high levels of spin and movement on his pitches. If he can harness those skills, he could be a valuable arm in the bullpen this October.
Let's start with Maton's numbers as an Astro. After going 2 scoreless innings in Arlington in the Monday blowout, Maton has now pitched 19.1 innings in Orange in Blue in 19 appearances. He has an ERA of 3.72, with 8 walks and 20 strikeouts. Maton's FIP is better at 3.32, suggesting that his ERA should be lower. But his WHIP in Houston is high, at 1.45. Maton has allowed 20 hits in those 19.1 innings.
Opponents have a slash line of .267/.345/.373 against Maton in Houston, So he is allowing batters to reach base more than the average pitcher, but has a lower slugging percentage than average. These number show Maton to be close to a league average pitcher. He can soak up innings and have some good ones, but these aren't the numbers of a hurler you would trust in the middle innings against top teams in the playoffs.
But the case for Maton as a top shelf relief pitcher is based not on his production to date, but on the more advanced numbers seen in his Statcast profile.
It starts with his spin rate. It's good, real good. 93rd percentile on his fastball, 95th percentile on his curveball. Good enough for Maton to choose "Spin Rate" as the nickname for the back of his jersey on player's weekend.
Maton's spin rate creates movement in his pitches. His curveball moves 6 inches more horizontally than the average major leaguer. That's the 10th best in baseball his year. For context, he's one spot behind Charlie Morton (good), three behind Ryan Pressly (very good, and five behind Brooks Raley (welp). His cutter is ranked even higher. It moves 4.3 inches more than the MLB average, which is 4th best in MLB. Luis Garcia's excellent cutter is 12th in horizontal movement.
Maton's high spin rates and movement has led to excellent numbers in his "expected numbers. He has an expected BA of .205 this season, and expected slugging of .341, and an expected wOBA of .293. Each of these numbers are higher than his actual number this year. For example, Maton is allowing an opponents' batting average of .247, a slugging percentage of .414, and a wOBA of .325.
These expected numbers indicate that Maton is pitching in bad luck, and that he is giving up more soft contact hits than one would expect. And if that is the case, his luck will even out over time, and Maton's numbers will move closer to his expected numbers.
One indicator of a pitchers bad luck would be if he is giving up a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). These numbers can fluctuate over time for individual pitchers or hitters, but tend to cluster near the MLB average of .292. And we see evidence of that for Maton. He gave up a BABIP of .356 in Cleveland this season. One reason to think that the Maton deal would help the bullpen is that between regression to the mean and the Astros excellent team defense, his BABIP would come down and his numbers would move toward the expected number.
But that has not happened. Maton has given up a BABIP of .339 during his time in Houston. His luck has not turned. But it is possible that Maton's issues with BABIP this season are not issues this season. Maton has a career BABIP of .335 in 209.1 inning in the majors. He had seasons near the MLB average in 2017 (.284) and 2019 (.290), but those are balanced against high BABIP years in 2019 (.350) and 2021 (.349 over the course of the season).
It is also worth noting that unlike Kendall Graveman and Yimi Garcia--the other relievers the Astros acquired at the trade deadline--Maton is not a free agent after this season. Maton has 2 more seasons after this one before he can decide with whom he contracts for his employment.
Since the trade was made, we have learned through reporting by Ken Rosenthal that the Indians front office has targeted Straw for a while, and made offers for him both in this past off-season and at the 2020 trade deadline. Jake Kaplan has written that "Meyers’ power surge in Triple A turned the Astros into believers that he could be as good as Straw, if not better," explaining why Click finally agreed to deal Straw.
Looking at these numbers, you can see why Click chose Maton as the return for Straw. His combination of elite spin and movement are those of a highly effective major league pitcher. The results have not come yet in Houston--he still gives up more base hits than you would expect--or like.
Getting Maton to pitch to his potential could go a long way in October, if can do that. But that's a big if.
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