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Ball Go Far. Team Go Far; The Home Runs Made the Difference

No stat better sums up the Series better than the number of home runs hit by each team. The Braves his 11, and the Astros hit only 2. 

In my preview of the World Series, I asked the question "What do the Braves do to score runs?  They hit home runs. They were third in the majors in homers this year with 239."  I also noted that the Braves have "some of the classic problems that big sluggers do. They are very prone to strikeouts (22nd in MLB in strikeout rate) and the have a low batting average (.244, which is exactly the MLB average).

The Braves hitting stats in the World Series followed along with what they did during the regular season. They had a modest batting average, hitting .239 over the six games.  They drew few walks, tallying only 18 in the series (a 8.2% walk rate), and they averaged over 10 strikeouts per game. These are not impressive numbers.

But their 11 home runs are. Hitting home runs was the key to the Braves offense during the regular season, and it is the reason they are World Series Champions. They scored 18 of their 25 World Series runs on homers. 

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We did not see enough Astro home run celebrations

The Astros offense shows the opposite end of that principle. Jose Altuve hit 2 home runs in the World Series, and that was it for the Astros in the series. They were not able to put the ball over the fence.  In fact, they weren't able to hit the ball with any power in the series. The Astros had only 10 extra base hits in the entire World Series, and as a team had a slugging percentage of .299. 

For the Astros to score runs in the World Series, they needed to string together lots of hits in sequence. They were able to do that in a 4 run 2nd inning in Game 2, when they put together four singles in five batters of Max Fried. Their biggest inning in the Game 5 win was a 3 run 5th. It featured 3 singles and 2 walks. 

But outside of those two innings, the Astros did not score more than 2 runs in any inning in the World Series. They got to the World Series through big innings at the plate to defeat the White Sox and Red Sox. They were not able to continue that in the World Series. 

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For years, baseball writer Joe Sheehan has espoused a simple principle to explain post-season results: ball go far, team go far. Sheehan developed this as a retort to color commentators that keep calling for hitters to "go the other way" and to "beat the shift." In short, to aim to hit a single rather than a home run. 

Hitting home runs is obviously a good thing, as your team scores at least one run. When you hit a home run when men are on base, it's obviously better. Hitting home runs leads to runs, which leads to wins. 

If singles mattered the most, the Astros would have won. They hit out-singled the Braves 35 to 29.  Both teams had 8 inside-the-park extra base hits, so they were even there. But the Braves won the series by hitting it out of the park. 

The difference is home runs was huge. Literally in the fact that it was tied for the largest home run gap in any World Series in history (see the Sarah Langs tweet below). And huge because it provided the margin of victory in this World Series. 

The Braves hit the ball far; the Astros did not hit the ball far.  The Braves went far, farther than our boys. It's not surprising that the team with more home runs won. They usually do. 

In my World Series preview, I noted that the Astros had the offensive advantage entering the Series. But, I wrote "the advantage will change quickly if the Braves can hit home runs, especially with men on base. The Braves have big power up and down their lineup."  I wish I wasn't so right about what could go wrong. 

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