The Need for Contact: An ALDS Preview

What is the big question that will determine the winner of the Astros-White Sox clash in the American League Division Series?  I think it is whether Astros hitters can make contact against the White Sox pitchers. If they do, the can take advantage of the White Sox poor defense and score runs. But if they don’t…

What is the second biggest will determine the winner of the series? I think it is whether Astros pitchers can force White Sox hitters to make contact. The Astros are a below averageteam when it comes to walking batters while the White Sox have one of the highest walk rates in baseball. But the Astros have a significant advantage on defense, and turn a high percentage of batted balls into out. If their pitchers can keep batters off base, they can prevent runs. But if they don't...

 Astros Hitters vs. White Sox Pitchers

The Astros led major league baseball in lots of key offensive categories--runs per game, batting average, and on base percentage. There's a good argument that the Astros have the best offense in baseball. But most importantly to the matchup against the White Sox, they led the league in strikeout percentage (i.e. they had the lowest strikeout rate in MLB).

The White Sox pitching staff don't have an argument that they are the best in baseball, but they do have a high quality staff. They are 4th in the majors in a number of categories. But they do lead the majors in one category--strikeout percentage. That is, they strike out a higher percentage of batters than any other pitching staff in baseball. 

The expected White Sox starters in this series all strike out a higher percentage of batters than that teamwide average. Lance Lynn has a K% of 27.5%; Lucas Giolito's is 27.9%; Dylan Cease strikes out 31.9% of batters, and Carlos Rodon K's 34.6% of the batters he has faced this season. The ChiSox two relief aces--Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel--strike out 42.3% and 36.7% of batters respectively. 

It's a classic strength against strength matchup. The White Sox pitchers blow batters away and keep them from putting balls in play. The Astros hitters make contact better than any other team, putting pressure on the defense.  So a big key to this series is who will win this matchup. Will the White Sox be able to record double digit strikeouts, or will the Astros bats be able to limit Ks and make contact?  

There is good reason to trust the Astros batters to make contact against the White Sox pitching. In The Athletic today, Eno Sarris predicted that the "Astros will win it all due to all that contact they make." 

Sarris continued: 

"Teams that make contact do better against high velocity, Ben Lindbergh found. Teams that strike out less do better in the postseason. These things are connected by the fact that pitchers throw harder in the postseason, thanks to adrenaline and perhaps shorter stints and more rest days in the bullpen. Yes, there are more strikeouts in the game today, but the better teams strike out less and know it’s a huge component of their success.

"The Astros have made contact a priority in free agency, with signings such as Michael Brantley (10.4 percent strikeout rate this year) and Yuli Gurriel (11.2); their home-grown stars are also good at bat-to-ball, with Jose Altuve (13.4), Carlos Correa (18.1), Kyle Tucker (15.9) and Alex Bregman (13.3) all much better than the league-wide average of 23.2 percent strikeout rate this season. In a related matter, Houston scored more runs this season than any other team in baseball." 

This is a big matchup in this series. There is every reason to think that the Astros can win it. 

Astros Pitchers vs. White Sox Hitters

The glamour matchup in the ALDS will be when the Astros are batting against White Sox pitchers, but what happens in the other half inning--when the Astros pitchers face off against the White Sox batters will have a lot to say about who will win the series.

While the Astros hitters and White Sox pitchers offer top of the league numbers, the opposite matchup isn't quite as high of a quality. The Astros have, for example, given up an OPS of .687 to opposing batters, which is 6th best in MLB.  Good, but not elite. But White Sox hitters are in a similar position in OPS--they are 7th best with a .758 OPS.

Most of the numbers on the chart on the right are around that rank. But it is worth noting the few stats where these teams are below average. For example, the White Sox batters are not huge home run hitters--they hit the 19th most in baseball this year. 

And the Astro pitchers will walk batters. Their 9.1% walk rate is the 23rd best in baseball. That's a problem. White Sox batters (especially catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Yoan Moncada) are particularly good at drawing walks. 

You don't need citations to a bunch of Sabr-metric studies like Sarris posted in the quote above to know that walks are bad when you are pitching. If you are a baseball fan, you've probably nicknamed your ulcer "Base on balls."  Can the Astros pitching find some command and keep the ball in the strike zone. The Astros pitching staff is not a huge strikeout side, but they have been effective at preventing runs by holding opponents to a low batting average and keeping opponents from slugging the ball hard. If they can do that, they can succeed in holding down the White Sox offense. But they need to limit their walks, which will be difficult. 

The Defenses: A Huge Astros Advantage

Both of the keys I have identified in this series focus on making contact at the plate.  Astros hitters need to do it and not strike out. Astros pitchers need to force White Sox batters to make contact, rather than allowing a ton of walks. 

A key reason why contact matters so much in this series is the large advantage that the Astros have on defense. Defensive metrics are notoriously finicky and often point an analyst to different conclusions. But there is only one conclusion one can make based on the Astros defensive statistics--they are one of the best fielding teams in the majors. 

The White Sox...are not. Some measures (Fielding Runs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved) regard them as among the worst defenses in baseball.  Outs Above Average say they are below average. But Ultimate Zone Rating says they are average to above average, as does Batting Average on Balls In Play allowed. 

Regardless of which measure you look at, they all show that the Astros defense is substantially better than that of the White Sox. 

Both the Astros and White Sox pitching staffs allow 7.7 hits per nine innings, but they get there in different ways. The White Sox rely on striking out a high percentage of batters and reducing the amount of contact that their opponents make. The Astros pitching staff strikes out fewer batters, but its high quality defense gets to more balls in play, converting them into outs. 

The Astros want to force contact at the plate and at on the mound. More contact at the plate means fewer strikeouts and more balls to get through the White Sox porous defense. More contact on the mound means fewer walks, forcing the White Sox to try to get balls past the Astros stellar defense. 

Do that, and we're on to the ALCS for the fifth straight season.