In my ALDS preview, I highlighted the need for Astros hitters to make contact and for Astros pitchers to force contact, by avoiding walk. I then wrote that "a key reason why contact matters so much in this series is the large advantage the Astros have on defense."
I've written some takes that have not held up over time. But this one did, as the defensive differences in the 7th inning proved pivotal to the Astros 9-4 victory today at Minute Maid Park.
In the top of the 7th, Dusty Baker brought on Ryne Stanek to face 9-1-2 in the White Sox lineup. He responded by striking out the first two batters, but an ambush single by Luis Robert and a walk to Jose Abreu created a jam. But the walk didn't hurt the Astros in the end. Stanek forced contact from White Sox batter Yasmani Grandal (that's good), but it was hard contact. Grandal hit it at 101.8 MPH and a 16 degree launch angle (that's bad). Balls hit at that exit velocity and launch angle are hits 59% of the time. But not today. Kyle Tucker raced into right center, lept, and made a backhand grab of the ball, saving at least one run and ending the inning.
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| Kyle Tucker runs down Grandal's liner in the gap. |
In the bottom of the 7th, the Astros made contact. Well, Michael Brantley didn't, striking out against lefty Aaron Bummer. But Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez all found holes in the porous White Sox defense to give the Astros a 1 run lead. Tony La Russa called on Craig Kimbrel, one of his two bullpen aces. Kimbrel retired Yuli Gurriel on a flyout to right, bringing up Correa.
Kimbrel is a strikeout pitcher, punching out 42.6% of all batters he faced this season. But Correa only strikes out 18.1% of the time, and his ability to make contact paid off again. He hit a ball similar to Grandal--106.1 MPH at 15 degrees, an expected batting average of .660. But he hit it closer to the right fielder--the dreaded at-'em ball.
But White Sox rightfielder Leury Garcia did not get a good read on the ball, turning toward his left, spinning all the way around, and then waving at the ball that he should have caught. Bregman and Alvarez scored. Garcia's bad defensive play then brought up Kyle Tucker, who also made hard contact into the Crawford Boxes. The Astros top seven hitters had batted that inning, six made contact, five reach based, and five scored. The Astros win probability was now 98.6%, and the rest of the game was mostly a formality.
It inspired national baseball reporters to sing the praises of the Astros offense.
Take 1:
here’s one way to understand how good the Astros offense is: they have the guy who led MLB in position player bWAR and the guy with the highest wRC+ among qualified hitters who are still in the postseason batting 6th & 7th respectively and I can’t really blame Dusty Baker at all
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) October 8, 2021
Take 2:
I think this series is way more telling about the Astros than the White Sox. The Sox are really good, but the Astros are just better. Their lineup is unbelievable
— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) October 8, 2021
And Take 3, with a full summary.
Doesn't matter if you're right-handed, left-handed, hard-throwing, soft-tossing, fastball-heavy, spin-centric. The Astros hit everything. Their offense is top-to-bottom marvelous, and they're going to be a tough out this October. About to take a two-games-to-none lead on Chicago.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 8, 2021
But the defensive difference allowed for the lineup to do its thing. Tucker is credited with 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average. The White Sox fielding numbers are worse; they are credited with -43 Defensive Runs Saved (29th in the majors) and -4 Outs Above Average (21st best). Garcia is credited with -2 Defensive Runs Saved and -3 Outs Above Average. He's not a terrible defender, but you would certainly rather have Tucker going after a fly ball than Garcia, and it showed.
For the Astros, if they avoid the walk they can force contact and rely on their defense. It worked in the top of the 7th. And if they avoid strikeouts and make contact at the plate, they can exploit the White Sox defensive deficiencies. They turned the game in the 7th inning today due to their advantage on defense.
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One clear advantage that the White Sox had walking into the series was the bullpen. While the Astros have one high level ace in Ryan Pressly, the White Sox have two in Kimbrel and Liam Hendriks. The Astros have good set-up men in Ryne Stanek and Kendall Graveman, but White Sox relievers such as Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet, and Aaron Bummer gave their side a deeper and more reliable set of options out of the bullpen.
That was an advantage that did not bear out in the results today. The White Sox bullpen gave up 5 runs, 7 hits, and 1 walk in 3.2 innings pitched. White Sox relievers struck out only 3 batters (two by Hendriks in garbage time in the bottom of the 8th) and had a Win Probability Added of -0.479.
Astros relievers threw 4.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, and 2 walks, white striking out 5. More importantly, they gave up--with a big assist to the defense--0 runs and had a Win Probability Added of .054. It was not a dominant performance, but it was certainly an effective one. The bullpen kept the White Sox down, navigating around traffic in the 7th, 8th, and 9th.
The bullpen should be an advantage for the White Sox, and as the game stayed close going into the final third, I worried that the Astros bullpen would crack before the White Sox 'pen. I'm happy that I was wrong.
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