What is Cristian Javier? I mean, we know the answer to who is Cristian Javier. He’s a pitcher for the Astros who successfully debuted when pressed into the rotation in 2020. He’s a 24 year old from the Dominican Republic. And he’s a fun guy wins the coffee game, the YouTube MVP, and our smiles in every picture he takes from Julia Morales.
But the more interesting question about Javier is what is he? And where does he fit into the Astros plans this October? Is he a potential multi-inning weapon who can bridge the difference between starters who will likely be on short leashes after two times through the order and the late inning guys in the bullpen? Or is he an average reliever who will only be used in low leverage situations in October, if at all.
The reason we do not know what role Javier will play for the Astros in the playoffs is that Javier has been a bundle of contradictions throughout his two seasons with the Astros. We seem no closer to resolving those contradictions in September of 2021 as we have at any point in his career.
A look at Javier’s Statcast numbers helps to show some of these contradictions. Javier has a K% in the 83rd percentile in baseball and a Whiff % in the 87th percentile. But he is not getting those whiffs by getting to chase pitches out of the zone. His chase percentage is only in the 18th percentile.
His spin rates on his pitches are excellent--in the 70th percentile for his fastball and the 93rd percentile for his breaking pitches. Movement is supposed to be good and keep hitters off balance, but despite the movement on his pitches, hitters are barreling up Javier this year. He's at the 10th percentile in both Barrel % and HardHit %. Giving up hard contact is bad because it is harder for fielders to get to balls, but fielders are having no problem getting to balls hit off of Javier's pitches. He is allowing a batting average on balls in play of .228, well below the league average of .292. Part of the reason that Javier has such a low BABIP is that he induces a high share of infield pop-ups. Opponents have hit pops to infielders on 11.8% of their plate appearances this season and on 16.7% of their plate appearances in 2020; the league average is 10.5%.
Javier's 2021 has been notable for his poor command. He has walked 13.2% of all batters he has seen this season for a 4.9 BB/9 innings rate. Both are higher than in 2020, when he walked 8.4% of all batters for a 3.0 BB/9 inning rate. But despite the increased share of walks, Javier has not thrown that many more balls. He threw balls on 39% of his pitches in 2020 and 40% in 2021.
Javier has increased his walk rate, but he has also increased his strikeout rate in 2021. He is striking out 30.4% of batters this season, up from 25.2% in 2020. As a result, his K%-BB% has changed little from 2020 to 2021; it was 16.8% last season and is 17.2% this season.
Despite having a high walk rate, Javier does not throw a disproportionate share of pitches outside the strike zone. He has thrown 49.4% of his pitches in the strike zone. The league average is 49.9%. But Javier walks batters because he cannot get them to chase his pitches. Javier only induces a swing on 24.9% of the ball he throws outside of the strikezone, which is 174th best in MLB this season.
Despite the inability to get batters to chase, Javier succeeds by generating swings and misses on pitches inside the strike zone. Batters only make contact on 75.4% of their swings at pitches in the strike zone. That ranks 14th best in MLB this season (minimum 250 plate appearances). For context, that's one spot ahead of Gerrit Cole.
Javier is known for his "invisiball," which Jake Kaplan described as having "a rare combination of deception in his delivery from his low three-quarters arm slot and backspin on his fastball to throw it by hitters despite his pedestrian velocity."
Yet despite these numbers, Javier's fastball has been his least effective pitch this year. Batters have slugged .442 against his fastball, much higher than his slugging percentage allowed against his slider (.241), curveball (.235), and his changeup (.316). Similarly, his wOBA allowed on his fastball is the worst of all of his pitches. It's .340 against the fastball, .168 against the slider, .232 against the curve, and .223 against the change.
Yet Javier is a fastball dominant pitcher. He throws his four seamer on 60% of his pitches, more than twice as much as his more effective slider (26% of the time). He rarely throws the curve (8%) or the changeup (6%). He is a pitcher throwing his worst pitch too often, in large part because he lacks the ability to get opponents to chase his secondary offerings. But he can induce a large number of swings and misses, but only when pitches are in the strike zone. The contradictions abound with Javier.
The effect of all of this has been positive. Javier has had a 3.19 ERA in 90.1 innings this year with a WHIP of 1.18. But together all of Javier's pitches, and opponents are slashing .182/.296/.352 for an OPS of .648. Javier's ability to strike a large number of batters out and to allow a low batting average by his opponents has overcome his high walk rate to create an effective set of results.
Of course, the contradictions for Javier are not limited to his statistical profile. There is the question of what Javier's role should be for the Astros. For the first third of the season, Javier was in the starting rotation. He pitched well; in 48.2 innings over 9 starts, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine but walked 3.9. Opponents slashed .173/.273/.339 against him.
With the rotation 7-deep, the front office elected to move Javier to the bullpen. Starting on May 28, Javier has pitched in 22 games out of the 'pen, logging 41.2 innings. He has struck out 11.9 batters per nine but walked 6.0. More strikeouts but more walks than in the rotation. But again, the effect on the final results were none. Javier has a 3.24 ERA in the bullpen, and opponents are slashing .193/.320/.367 against him in the pen.
So we are still left with the question of what is Cristian Javier? Is he a high spin, high strikeout pitcher who induces a large number of infield pop-ups? Is he a pitcher who cannot fool major league hitters and gets hit hard on a consistent basis. Is the the wild pitcher whose control will get him in trouble? Or is the the high strikeout pitcher who is able to fool batters in the zone? Is the the 4+ ERA pitcher that his FIP says that he is, or the low 3's ERA pitcher his ERA says that he is?
We don't fully know the answer to any of these questions, other than to say that the answer to all of them is "Yes, to some degree." Cristian Javier is a pitcher of may contradictions, none of which have been resolved yet.
The Astros have tried to use him as a multi-inning reliever since he was sent to the bullpen. But it is unclear what role he will play in the playoffs. In the playoffs, starters often go for shorter outings as the off-days allow managers to use their top relievers more. Cristian Javier could be a multi-inning bridge in the middle innings, possibly pitching the third time through the order, preserving an early lead and handing the game off to the guys Dusty trusts in the late innings of high leverage situations--Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, and Kendall Graveman. But Javier has not been used in that fashion during the regular season. He usually pitches on days that the late inning trio does not. Dusty and Brent Strom have struggled to identify high leverage situations where they can put Javier into the game to pitch for multiple innings.
So that leaves open the possibility that in the playoffs, Javier will be used as just another reliver that Dusty has some trust in, but who he would prefer to avoid in high leverage situations, even in the middle innings.
Both possibilities are speculation on my part at this point. Javier could fill either one of those roles. After 5+ months of the season, it is still unclear how to resolve the contradictions of the Cristian Javier.
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