In 2017, Francis Martes appeared to be the future of the Astros pitching rotation. In 2021, Martes walked 23 batters in 14 2/3 minor league innings and was released last week.
At one point, I wrote that Martes was "a very important player" on the 2018 Spring Training roster because "Martes represents the best bet" to take a spot in the 2019 or 2020 Astros rotation "after [Forest] Whitley." Today, I not only acknowledge that that take didn't hold up [editor's note: It really didn't], but that Martes's release is not a big deal to the future of the Astros.
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| Francis Martes never realized his potential. |
Martes was a highly rated prospect. In 2016, Baseball America ranked him as the 20th best prospect in baseball. In 2017, he moved up the list, landing at 15th. He made his major league debut in 2017, and looked like he would play an important role on that team shuttling between Houston and the AAA team in Fresno. But then Martes was derailed by injury--he hurt his elbow after pitching only 19.2 innings in 2018 and required Tommy John surgery--and getting busted for using PEDs--he received a 80 game suspension in March 2018 and a 162 game suspension in February 2020.
What is the lesson of the failed promise of Francis Martes? At The Athletic, Jake Kaplan concluded that "[t]he quiet end of Francis Martes’ tenure with the Astros this week is yet another reminder about how even the most exciting prospects have considerable bust potential."
This is true to some extent. Nothing in the future is guaranteed and we often assume a greater future for prospects than is warranted. But I think there is more depth to the story of Francis Martes with the Astros. It tells us more than just that not all prospects work out.
Maybe the Astros Just Got Unlucky on Martes
I've posted Baseball America's 2017 top prospects below The list is filled with players who are currently major league regulars, and some who are stars; Cody Bellinger has won an MVP; Ozzie Albies will be an All-Star for years; he look, there's Kyle Tucker at 19.
Not every player on this list is an All-Star, but all but three of the players on this list are major league regulars right now. There are three who are not: Nick Senzel has been a major league regular, but never quite developed; Mickey Moniak, a top draft pick from the Phillies who has made only cups of coffee in the majors and has lost his prospect status, and Martes.
Perhaps the lesson is that your team has a player in the Top 20 prospects, you have an 85% chance of getting a useful major player. That certainly leaves room for the idea that top prospects have bust potential, but also assumes that top prospects are valuable--they are likely to be quality major leaguers in the near future.
Another notable aspect of the Baseball American list is that it features only two pitching prospects--Martes at #15 and Alex Reyes at #4. Like Martes, Reyes has been hampered by injuries--he spent time on the IL due to Tommy John surgery, a torn lat muscle and a broken finger. He has returned to the Cardinals, but as a reliever. He's a major league contributor, but nowhere near the 4th most valuable player on this list.
After #20, there is a run of pitchers on the Baseball American list: Anderson Espinoza (#21), Mitch Keller (#22), Tyler Glasnow (#23), Lucas Giolito (#25), Yadier Alvarez (#26), Jose De Leon (#29), and Brent Honeywell (#30).
It is a list full of players who have suffered a number of injuries. Some which have kept players away from the majors (Espinoza, Alvarez), some which delayed their MLB debuts and retarded their development (De Leon and Honeywell), and some which have just gone under the knife after a breakout season (Glasnow).
There is an expression in sabrmetric circles that "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect." Only a handful of pitchers will remain healthy enough to avoid a visit to see Dr. James Andrews. Few will survive and pitch to their potential. Martes never could meet his potential due to his arm injury. His story is a common one.
The Astros are Alright Despite Martes's Flameout
I noted earlier my 2018 thought that Martes would join Forest Whitley in the Astros rotation in 2019 or 2020 and how that does not look so smart nearly four seasons later.
But the instinct behind my 2018 interest in Martes was absolutely correct. The Astros lost four members of their 2018 rotation in the next few seasons--Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel signed elsewhere as free agents after the 2018 season; Gerrit Cole joined them in 2019, and Justin Verlander suffered an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery one start into the 2020 season.
The Astros needed to develop some arms that could replace these pitchers in the rotation. They have mostly done so by developing young pitchers from their minor league system. But instead of developing their highly rated prospects like Martes and Whitley, they have done so with more under-the-rader prospects in Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia.
Each of these starters have played key roles in the 2021 rotation, and are likely to continue to do so for several more years into the future. The Martes release--and the lost potential of Martes--stings little for Astros fans because his potential has been realize in other players.
So maybe the ultimate lesson of the story of Francis Martes with the Astros is don't put all of your eggs in one basket. Each prospect is a risky and teams should develop as many as possible. Or to put it another way, "even the most exciting prospects have considerable bust potential." Plan accordingly.
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