Like most Astro fans, I've been paying close attention to the team's moves at the deadline, writing up analysis of how Kendall Graveman has improved this year and the rationale for the Myles Straw for Phil Maton deals here on the blog. I have also written a take on Yimi Garcia on Twitter (I'm more skeptical of this move).
But I also pay great attention to the moves of the other American League West teams. The path to the playoffs in the two wild card era is through winning the division title. I want to understand not just where the Astros stand, but also where they stand in relation to the other four teams in the division.
The most interesting and consequential move made in the AL West this trade deadline was the Oakland A's trade of Jesus Luzardo for Starling Marte. It was a win-now move designed to help the A's hold off the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners for the second AL Wild Card.
It is also a move that is good news for the Houston Astros over the long term. It's good news for us Astros fans for three reasons:
- The As gave up on a potential long-term asset.
- The As may be all in on 2021 because they have to take a step back in 2022, and
- The As win-now move will have little effect on the Astros chances of winning the AL West in 2021.
I address each of these reasons in turn.
The As gave up on a potential long-term asset.
In both 2019 and 2020, Luzardo was consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball. Luzardo seemed to establish himself in the Oakland rotation in 2020, starting 9 games in the shortened season with a 4.12 ERA and an impressive 3.47 K/BB ratio in 59 innings. Bob Melvin tabbed Luzardo to start Game 1 of their playoff series against the White Sox and Game 3 against the Astros.
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| Jesus Luzardo may still develop into a star pitcher, but it won't be in the American League West. |
The As seemed to have developed a pitcher they could plug into the rotation for the next several years at a minimum salary. Last August, Fangraphs ranked Luzardo as having the 45th most trade value in all of baseball.
And yet, just one season later, the A's gave up on Luzardo. To be fair to the A's, Luzardo's 2021 has been a disaster. He sports a 6.87 ERA and his 6.08 FIP shows it is not a case of bad luck. Luzardo started the year in the rotation, got injured, came back to a bullpen role, and then was demoted to Triple A.
From the outside, it's hard to say why the A's traded Luzardo. Perhaps the A's thought he was overrated and would not meet expectations. Perhaps they thought he was a declining asset they needed to cash in now. Perhaps they thought dealing Luzardo was the only way to beat other team's offer for Marte, who addresses a big need for the A's in their outfield. Likely, some element of all three played a role in the choice of Billy Beane and David Forst to deal Luzardo.
But from an Astros fan perspective, the reason does not matter much. Marte will be a free agent this off-season and is unlikely to re-sign in Oakland. Luzardo may recover the form that made him such a highly coveted prospect, but if he does, it will not be in the American League West.
The As may take a step back in 2022
The A's are a franchise defined by their choice to keep their payroll low and forcing their front office to work around that limit. The current iteration of the A's is driven by their three superstar players--Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Ramon Laureano. While these stars have not yet reached free agency, each is getting more expensive. Olson and Chapman will enter their second year of arbitration this off-season and Laureano his first. Each of the three will get significant raises as a result.
With Chapman and Olson scheduled to be free agents after the 2023 season, the A's may do what they have done before and try to trade their star players while their trade value is high in exchange for younger (and less expensive) players. The A's did this with stars such as Josh Donaldson, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder.
Obviously, this is all speculation by me, and I'm just a dude with internet access. But the Marte trade is consistent with the notion that the A's will trade one (or more) of their stars this off=season. If they A's are going to trim payroll in 2022, it makes more sense to go for it in 2021. They are currently in a position to play in the Wild Card game, and Marte, who is slashing .306/.408/.444 this season, can help them hold off their competitors for the last playoff spot.
In 2021, we have a chance, let's go for it, because it may be our last chance for a while.
The As trade will have little effect on the 2021 AL West
Of course, the big worry for Astro fans right now is not the 2022, 2023 season, but the 2021 season, where the Astros currently have a 4 1/2 game lead over the As. If Marte is going to help the A's this season, will he help them overtake the Astros for the division.
I cannot tell you that there is a 0% chance of that happening, but it's not much higher than that. Right now, the projection models at both Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight.com give the Astros a 90% chance of winning the American League West. Baseball Prospectus is even more optimistic--it gives the Astros a 93% chance of winning the division.
The reasons for this are simple. The Astros have a big lead (4 1/2 games), and the A's would have to play significantly better than the Astros over a large stretch of games to catch them. And the Astros are a better team. The Astros have a run differential of +149 while the A's have one of +52. The nearly 100 win difference between the two teams is evidence of the Astros higher quality of play this year, which means the Astros should continue to stretch out their lead over the A's.
The Zips projection system says that Marte will add 1.2 wins above replacement for the rest of the season. That is especially valuable for the A's when you consider that Marte is replacing a set of right fielders (Stephen Piscotty and Seth Brown) who were playing at replacement level. But even with Marte's big contributions to the A's, Fangraphs projects the Astros to win the AL West by 7 games over the A's.
The A's need every game they can get in the Wild Card race with the Yankees and Blue Jays. Each of the three playoff projection systems say those three teams will end up within 2 games of each other by the end of season. It will come down to the last weekend, and A's can use Marte's help to get them to October.
But for Astro fans, the good news is that whether or not the A's make the playoffs, they have failed to develop a promising prospect. They have cashed in his remaining promise for an increased shot at winning in 2021. This is good news for the future hopes of our team at basically no cost to its current hopes.
The Astros have a excellent playoff odds, a strong lead in the division, and
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