With the throw from Jose Altuve to Yuli Gurriel in the 9th last night, the Astros not only won their 3rd straight game, but also completed their 27th game of the season.
Why does the 27th game matter? Because it is exactly one-sixth of a major league baseball season. Many prefer to use the end of the month to designate the markers of a baseball season. I prefer 27 game increments because it makes the math easier. So after 27 games, you just take a stat--say the face that the Astros have won 15 games--multiply it by 6, and you get the rate for the season. So 15 wins times 6 is 90 wins. The Astros are on a 90 win pace so far. Good, but not great. But you can also take Yuli Gurriel's team leading 18 RBI. Multiply 18 times 6 and you get 108 RBI on the season for Yuli. Excellent.
After the second 27 game increment, we'll be at 1/3 of the season, and you can multiply by 3. After the third 27 game increment, we'll be halfway through the season--multiply by 2.
So just as how a business will talk about how they are doing each quarter (i.e. each quarter of the year), here at Breathing Orange Fire, we'll talk about how the Astros are doing each sixth.
The first sixth of the season was notable for its streakiness. The Astros won 6 of their first 7 games, most in convincing fashion, against their major rivals for the AL West crown--the As and Angels. But after a win in the home opener against Oakland, the Astros went into a big slump, losing 9 of 10 games, and to lesser competition (the Tigers, Mariners, and Rockies). This was also during the IL stint for the COVID 5, which took four starters out of commission.
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| The Sparklines graph on the Astros page at Baseball Reference is a wild ride |
The team has rebounded strongly since returning from the snow game in Colorado. They have won 9 of the past 11, and have won series against the Angels, Mariners, and Rays.
R/G: 4.96 (5th). OBP: .320 (9th). SLG: .403 (8th). OPS: .723 (8th). OPS+: 106 (6th).
The Astros winning record is driven by the offense. The team is scoring runs and lots of them. They do this by having a high contact team--the Astros have struck out 193 times, 3rd lowest in MLB. They hare 2nd in MLB in hits (233) and 4th in batting average (.253). That high floor for their offense is producing runs despite a lack of home runs--the Astros have hit only 26 this season, good for 23rd in MLB. But they are making up for a lack of homers by hitting doubles--they are 2nd in MLB with 52 two-baggers.
RA/G: 3.74 (7th). FIP: 3.93 (13th). WHIP: 1.15 (8th). K/9: 9.0 (16th). K/BB: 3.01 (11th)
The Astros pitching looked wobbly during the losing streak, but has rebounded nicely. Astro starters have a 1.82 ERA in their last 10 games (h/t @Chandler_Rome). The bullpen causes a great deal of consternation during the losing streak, especially in the wake of the series in Seattle. And while I would not regard the bullpen as an asset, it has not been a liability recently. Ryne Stanek had a great sixth (2.19 ERA; 0.57 WHIP; 13.1 K/9), and Ryan Pressly has shown again that he is one of the top relief pitchers in baseball.
The starting rotation proved solid, as the five guys in the current rotation all have ERAs lower than 4.00. Jose Urquidy has been the wobbliest of those five so far this season, but his 7 shutout innings yesterday dropped his ERA for 3.71. Outside of Cristian Javier (more below on him), none of the starters have been spectacular, but the five in the rotation right now all have ERA+'s over 100, indicating that each is better than league average.
The sour note in the rotation has been the pitching of Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has allowed 9 runs in 8 innings over three starts. He lasted only one batter on April 24th before being removed with an arm injury. He has been on the IL ever since.
Astros pitching has allowed a slash line of .222/.296/.374 for an OPS of .669. As those numbers indicate, the average hitter facing Astros pitching is not doing very well; that OPS is 8th best in MLB. That average batter would rank 113th in MLB in OPS.
Team Fielding and MLB Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average: 10 (5th). Defensive Runs Saved: 15 (3rd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 0.6 (14th). Errors: 9 (2nd)
There is a pattern in the Astros pitching rankings. When the measure of pitching is based on the contribution of pitchers (FIP, K/9, K/BB), the Astros pitchers rank in the middle third of all MLB teams. Right around average. But when you add in contributions from the Astros fielders (RA/G, WHIP), the rankings increase into the top third of the the league. There is a good reason for this. The Astros are a very good fielding team.
The numbers here help tell the story, as the Astros are saving runs due to the play of their defense. The defense has been sure handed (check out the errors) and benefits from having average to above average fielders across the board. The Astros defense often gets overlooked, but the quality of the defense has helped the team greatly over the last four playoff seasons.
Hitting Star of the Sixth: Yuli Gurriel
Gurriel leads the team in OPS (.979), OPS+ (179), and is second in bWAR (1.4, Correa leads the team at 1.6, thanks in large part to his defense). Gurriel had a wretched 2020, slashing .232./.274/.384 in the pandemic shortened season. But he has rebounded in 2021, with a remarkable slash line of .340/.436/.543. Driving Yuli's excellent first sixth has been his remarkably improved walk rate--he has walked 16 times so far this season; he walked only 12 time in 2020. Gurriel will turn 37 next month, so it is unlikely that he will keep this pace up in average and slugging. But if Yuli has made a big improvement in his batting eye, that could continue to pay dividends the rest of the season.
Pitching Star of the Sixth: Cristian Javier/Luis Garcia
I'm splitting this award not only because both Javier and Garcia had excellent sixths for the Astros, but because I want to dream on the Astros future rotation. Both Javier and Garcia had major questions to answer coming in to the season--could they increase their workloads, their innings pitched, and provide value to a think pitching staff. Both have answered those questions positively so far.
Javier has allowed a mere 2 runs in 20 2/3 innings, striking out 26 while allowing only 11 hits and 6 walks. He has created a great deal of confidence in both Astros fans and the Astros coaching staff.
Garcia has a 2.70 ERA with 20 Ks and 7 BBs in 20 IP, He has swung back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. Literally, he started his first appearance, then relieved, and has followed that pattern throughout the sixth. But he'll break that pattern when he starts on Wednesday in Yankee Stadium..
The success of these two young hurlers in the first sixth of the season is not only good news for the present--Javier's 5 shutout innings and 9 Ks against the Angels ended the losing skid. But they also raise hopes for the future. The Astros may have developed a pair of young rotation pieces that they can build around in the future. It is too early to make that conclusion, but we can all keep our fingers crossed.
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