With the return of Jose Altuve from the COVID IL on Monday, the Astros were able to run out their first choice lineup for the first time since April 12. And as I looked at the lineup, it looked strong--7-deep with above average major league hitters.
And that the lineup seems 7 deep is important, because before the season, I would have said it was 6 deep. Altuve and Brantley are high batting average guys at the top, followed by the on base ability of Bregman, Yordan's huge power, Correa's all-around ability and Tucker's lefty slugging ability.
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| Yuli Gurriel. His 2021 walk rates are as high as his hairstyle. |
But the lineup is now 7 deep. And that has been due to the marked improvement we have seen so far by Yuli Gurriel. After 95 plate apparances in 22 games, Yuli is slashing .352/.463/.570 for a wOBA of .447 and a wRC+ of 201.
What is driving this improvement in Gurriel's performance at the plate? The most notable change in Yuli's numbers is in his walk rate. Gurriel has walked 16 times so far this season. In 2017, Gurriel walked 22 times in the entire season.
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| Yuli is walking more in 2021, much more. |
The numbers are even more notable in rate form. The chart to the right shows the percentage of Gurriel's plate appearances that end in a walk or a strikeout. I included the 2021 MLB averages for context. From 2016 through 2020, Gurriel's numbers are pretty consistent. He walks little and strikes out less than league average. The strikeout numbers move little across the seasons. His walk rates increased slightly from 2016 to 2019, but then declined in 2020.
Gurriel's walk rate in 2021 has made a massive leap, even if in a small sample size. Gurriel is walking in nearly 17% of his plate appearances, nearly twice the MLB average. Gurriel ranks 10th in MLB for walk rate among qualified hitters, currently ahead of hitters known for the eye at the plate like Carlos Santana, Juan Soto, Robbie Grossman, and Cavan Biggio.
The chart also shows that Gurriel has been able to do this while his strikeout rate has remained right at his career norms--very low. Gurriel ranks 13th among qualified hitters in lowest K%. Gurriel is one of only 12 qualified batters this season to have a higher BB% than K%. Gurriel ranks 3rd in that stat among all hitters.
At The Athletic yesterday, Jake Kaplan noted that Gurriel's improved walk rate was due to "a career-best chase rate...he has swung at 28.5 percent of the pitches he has seen outside the strike zone this season, a significant improvement from his 35.4 percent career average and especially from his 37.8 percent mark from 2020."
Kaplan also writes that Gurriel has swung less this season (41.4% compared to a career rate of 49.2%) while maintaining his contact rate when he swings (84.4% this season compared to a career number of 85.2%).
This follows what we say with Yuli's walk rate. He is doing more of a good thing without sacrificing any of a bad thing.
To me, the batting eye is the most consequential skill for a major league hitter. Pitchers want to get batters out by getting them to chase pitches outside of the strike zone, which are almost always what announcers call "pitchers' pitches." Letting balls go and hitting only pitches in the strike zone is a formula for success (it's a big key to Alex Bregman's big numbers at the plate).
Gurriel has always relied on his high level bat-to-ball skills to avoid strikeouts. But that approach cost him walks. His improved approach this season has allowed him to post big numbers so far this season. Let's hope he keeps this trend up throughout the rest of the season.
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