Last week, we were treated to a new set of win total projections for the 2021 MLB season, courtesy of the ATC projection system. This projection showed the exact thing that other projection systems have shown--the Astros are the favorites to win the American League West crown this year.
The Pecota projections from Baseball Prospectus say the Astros will win 92 games this season and have a 64.7% chance of winning the division. Fangraphs projections have the Astros winning 89 games with a 55.4% chance of a division crown. The current set of projections by Clay Davenport have the Astros strong favorites in the AL West, projected to win 95 games.
The ATC projections are actually more optimistic about the Astros chances than the other projections, mostly because it has a more pessimistic projection about the Astros division rivals. ATC says the Angels and As will both win 80 games, while the Astros will take home 92 victories this year. This comes out to an 87.1% chance of the Astros winning the AL West.
Regardless of the details, the story of these projections are the same. The Astros enter the season as favorites to win the AL West. But I’ve written that column already this pre-season.
Instead, I address the issue of what would make these projections wrong. What would it take for the Astros to lose the AL West this year? They were supposed to win the AL West last season, but they finished 2nd in the division, and only made the postseason due to the pandemic inspired playoff expansion. So what are the situations where the Astros would end up in 2nd place again, or worse?
I sketch out the scenario for each team in the AL West needs to do to keep the Astros off the top of the mountain by the end of the season.
Athletics. The As won the division in 2020 and won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 to reach the Wild Card game. Based on these results, the As have been the 2nd most likely pick to win the division, and have been near equal favorites among less analytically inclined pundits. The As certainly had a bad off season, losing 4 of their starters from the Game 4 of the ALDS lineup back in October, in addition to two late-inning options from the 2020 bullpen. The As have downgraded in the middle infield, at left field, and at closer.
Yet the case for the A’s to beat the Astros is the easiest to make of any of the teams in the AL West. The A’s have lots of good young pitching, and like most young pitching, this has been a volatile stock. Arms like Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, and AJ Puk have shown great skill, but injuries and inconsistency have kept them from pitching full seasons. The three are projected to pitch a combined 321 innings, but if they are healthy and can each make 25 or more starts for the A’s, they will push their team’s win totals higher than projections.
The A’s have a strong core of prime age star players in Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Ramon Laureano, and any one of those three could make a further leap and have an MVP caliber season. Combine this with a healthier pitching staff than expected, and the As could make a run at 95 wins and blow past the competition in the AL West.
That the projections show the As headed for a win total in the low 80s shows that this is not the likeliest scenario, but the potential of the stars of this team make them the most likely team to overtake the Astros.
Rangers. Four meteors could take out Houston, Oakland, Anaheim, and Seattle, and the Rangers could fend off the AAA teams sent to replace those major league teams. I think.
Angels. The Angels have Mike Trout, which is as good a place for a baseball team to start as any. They also have Anthony Rendon, a star level player. In addition, they have a whole bunch of average. The Angels have some nice players in guys like David Fletcher and Dylan Bundy, and some guys who add value like Max Stassi. But there is no other player who could come close to MVP votes after the season.
This off-season, the Angels added a whole bunch of players who are decidedly average--Jose Iglesias, Alex Cobb, and Jose Quintana. They also added a closer in Raisel Iglesias. These moves were curious because while the Angels have the largest potential revenue stream in the division, they did not throw their money around on top free agents. Instead, the Angels focused on raising their team’s floor by acquiring competent veterans.
This strategy reflects the recent history of the Angels, where injuries have wreaked havoc on the team, especially in the starting rotation. While Trout is the best player in baseball, the Angels have had to rely too much on replacement level players just up from AAA or off the waiver wire. The strategy of this off-season seems to correct those issues.
The Angels can win the division if they can get greater levels of average play from more positions, especially in their starting rotation. This would provide a solid base that would compliment their star players. And speaking of stars, the Angels have baseball’s most interesting man in Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani was a two-way star in Japan, but he has not been able to stay healthy enough to both hit and pitch in MLB. He looked very good in Spring Training, so this could be the year he joins Trout and Rendon as star level players.
The problem with the Angels’s floor-raising strategy is that it requires lots of things to go right to lift the entire team. While the A’s are dependent on breakouts from a handful of players to rise to the top of the division, the Angels need a wide variety of players to have years better than average. It can, and has happened in the past, but it is not the way to bet.
Mariners. The Mariners have the best farm system in the division, and should see debuts this season from OF Jared Kelenic, OF Julio Rodriguez, and SP Logan Gilbert to go with 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.
The Mariners are picked 4th in the division, and no one is predicting them to finish above .500. But if their young guys arrive as fully formed major leaguers, they could elevate the whole team and they could “arrive” as a playoff team earlier than expected. But that scenario is more likely in 2022.
Astros. Yes, the Astros can keep the Astros out of first place in the division. They can underachieve and leave the door open for one of their division rivals to sneak through.
In 2020, the Astros underachieved particularly on offense. They received below average seasons at the plate from Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa. As a result, the Astros finished 10th in the AL in batting average, 11th in on base percentage, 9th in slugging percentage, and 7th in runs scored.
Their pitching was in a similar spot--7th inthe AL in ERA, 10th in walks, and 6th in strikeouts. The team’s pitching depth was tested by injuries and opt-outs, and the young bullpen struggled to find the strike zone.
The team should, of course, be better this year. Fangraphs projects the Astros to score the 3rd most runs in the AL, and give up the 5th least. Matching those projections should lead to a 90+ wins and a division title.
But if this team can’t match those projections, if Altuve and Correa’s slumps go longer than a small sample size season and the depth of the pitching staff is challenged by injuries and ineffectiveness, then there are reasons why the Astros will struggle in 2020, with the As and Angels possible beneficiaries.
This column is an exercise in Astros pessimism. It is trying to identify scenarios where things go wrong. Can any of the scenarios that I described here happen? Absolutely, none of them are far-fetched. But none of them are the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario is that the Astros, driven by having the largest group of star level players in the division and lacking clear drains in their lineup, meet the projections and win the division. May the odds be ever in our favor.
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