In April, I assessed the state of Astros bullpen. I made five arguments in that piece about the Astros bullpen:
- It has not been as bad as many fans perceive it,
- The bullpen is still performing at a below average level
- That level is meeting pre-season projections, if not expectations;
- There is reason to believe the bullpen could improve as the season goes on, and
- Even with improvement, the bullpen will still be a liability.
Today, I return to evaluating the Astros bullpen, and find that I agree with 4 of those 5 statements today, three months and 80 some odd games later. The bullpen is still this team's biggest liability. Yet my hope in statement 4 that the "bullpen could improve" has not borne out. With Myles Straw and Chas McCormick exceeding expectations in the outfield, the bullpen is clearly the team's biggest need heading into the trade deadline.
The State of the Bullpen
My headline on the April piece was "Better Than You Think, but Not as Good as You Hope." That assessment still seems to hold up.
I find the BB/9 numbers notable. The Astros bullpen feels some nights like it's immune to throwing strikes, with Ryne Stanek (5.7 BB/9) and Bryan Abreu (4.5 BB/9) making strong contributions. But overall, the Astros bullpen is mid-tier in giving up walks, just like it is in every category.
It is also worth noting one of the categories in which the Astros bullpen is in the bottom third of baseball--Wins Probability Added (WPA). The raw statistics for the Astros bullpen are better than the WPA number, which indicates that the Astros bullpen has been worse in the the "clutch." This is a big reason why the club's actual record is 3 games below its expected record.
The bullpen is mediocre, which I think is better than the perception of most Astros fans. The playoffs are a contest of teams in the top third of baseball. The mid-tier Astros bullpen is clearly below standard for a playoff team.
Who Should Pitch in the Playoffs
The best news for Astro fans about the bullpen is that it has not derailed the team this season. While it has cost the team a game and a half according to WPA, that' is offset by the excellent offense and starting position. The team is currently 3 games up in the AL West, and Fangraphs gives them a 85.0% chance of winning the AL West and a 95.4% chance of making the playoffs.
So the Astros need to prepare for the playoffs, and figure out which of their pitchers they want to pitch in high leverage situations in October.
Ryan Pressly. Pressly was a deserving All-Star, and is 3rd among all American League relievers in bWAR (1.8). Pressly is the team's best reliever by far, and the biggest issue in the playoffs will be how aggressive Dusty will be in deploying this asset.
Cristian Javier. The team moved Javier into the bullpen in late May and the results have been quite good. Javier has been used as a multi-inning reliever by the Astros and he's pitched 25 relief innings in 11 games. He has a 2.52 ERA and opponents are slashing .161/.284/.299 against Bullpen Javier. Javier is still wild (15 BB), but by limiting contact (only 14 hits) and inducing many pop-ups with his "Invisiball" high fastball, Javier has not paid a price for his wildness.
Brooks Raley. This is apparently the hill I'm going to die on as a blogger/tweeter, but Raley get strikeouts (11.9 K/9), does not walk batters (2.7 BB/9) and allows soft contact (99th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit % allowed). Bet on the skills, but not on the bad luck.
Pedro Baez. The front office signed Baez in the off-season to be a key set-up man for Pressly. Can he do the job? We don't know, as he's been on the IL all season with COVID and a shoulder injury. He's about 2 weeks away from completing his rehab and joining the active roster. #FingersCrossed
Outside of these three, anyone else is a crapshoot. Ryne Stanek and Blake Taylor are serviceable. but the high walk rates (Taylor is at 4.9 BB/9) give them high FIPs (4.82 for Stanek; 4.57 for Taylor). Bryan Abreu probably has the best potential of the remaining bullpen arms, but he remains maddeningly inconsistent. Josh James will also return soon from the IL, so I guess I should mention him.
In short, the Astros need more bullpen arms for the playoffs.
Who to Acquire at the Trade Deadline?
The mediocre state of the Astros bullpen, in addition to the solid state of the rest of the roster, makes bullpen the almost single priority at the trade deadline.
The need for help in the bullpen is complicated by the Astros payroll situation. The team is bumping up against the threshold to pay the luxury tax, which would cost Jim Crane money, but, more importantly, would result in penalties that would lower the Astros draft position and compensation if free agents Carlos Correa and Justin Verlander sign elsewhere. The Astros can certainly choose to go above this threshold, but I do not expect they will do so.
Helpfully, Anthony Franco of MLBTradeRumors.com compiled a list of potential bullpen arms the Astros could acquire and stay below the threshold, if that is their choice. There are a number of good options here, and if I were James Click, I'd prioritize getting more than one reliever at the deadline.
The payroll situation will complicate any of these moves. And, as always, trading for one of these relievers will require giving up on one of the few prospects that populate the Astros thin farm system. But relievers are the most affordable position to acquire via trade.
On the other hand, the list of contending teams that could use one more reliever to help them in the stretch run and playoffs is all of them, so there will be competition for any of these players. But the team needs one or two more arms to cover innings in October.
We'll see who the front office gets.
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