The Astros 5-1 victory last
night over the Red Sox was significant for two reasons. First, it means the
Astros are guaranteed a split against the Red Sox, which, since I married a Red
Sox fan, means I get the upper hand on price in my house.
And second, it closes out the
second sixth of the season. Here at Breathin’ Orange Fire, we mark the season through
each 27 game block in which the Astros play—or each sixth of the season. While
you usually see discussions of the end of the month, I prefer sixths for two
reasons:
1) It’s easier to compare sixths
because they are equal. So Kyle Tucker’s slash line of .327/.405/.602 this
sixth is a big improvement on the .173/.229/.357 slash line from the first
sixth of the season.
2) The math is easier. The
Astros have now played 54 games—which is two-sixth or one-third of the season. You
can take all of their counting stats and multiply by 3. So Carlos Correa has
hit 8 homers, scored 35 runs and driven in 28. Multiply those by 3 and you can
see that he’s on pace for 24 homers, 105 runs scored, and 84 ribbies on the
season.
Overall
Record: 30-24 (.556)
Record This Sixth: 15-12 (.556)
On Pace for a Record of: 90-72
Record This Sixth: 15-12 (.556)
On Pace for a Record of: 90-72
In the first sixth of the
season, the Astros went 15-12. And in the second sixth, they went 15-12. Do
this four more times and they’ll win 90 games.
The highlight of the sixth for the Astros was the stretch of games from the come-from-behind victory in NewYork on May 6 to the series winner in Oakland on May 20th. The Astros won 11 of those 14 games, capped by six straight wins over the Angels and Rangers in the middle of that set of games.
That hot streak came between two cold streaks. The Astros lost their first three games of the sixth (one in Tampa Bay and the first two in New York), and then had the cold snap where they lost 6 of 7 to the Rangers, Dodgers, and Padres. They are currently on a 3-game win streak.
One thing that is notable and weird about the Astros performance this season—they are playing better against good teams than they are against bad teams. The Astros are 16-10 against teams over .500 this season, and 10-11 against teams below .500.
R/G: 5.35 (1st). OBP: .338 (2nd). SLG: .425 (4th). OPS: .763 (2nd). OPS+: 113 (1st).
In the first sixth report, I wrote “The Astros winning record is driven by the offense. The team is scoring runs and lots of them.” This is even more true today than it was 27 games ago. In the second sixth of the season, the Astros averaged 5.7 per game, moving up to the top spot in all of the majors. The team had a slash line of .280/.355/.445 for an OPS of .801.
To give you context on what that slash line is like, think about what you feel when Michael Brantley comes to the plate. Confident right, he’s going to give you a professional at bat with a high chance of getting on base and a good chance of hitting the ball with power. Michael Brantly has an .801 OPS on the season. On this team, he’s just an average hitter. He’s sixth on the team in OPS behind Yuli Gurriel (.881), Yordan Alvarez (.878), Jose Altuve (.842), Alex Bregman (.836), and Carols Correa (.820).
Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 4.22 (13th). FIP: 4.25 (19th). WHIP: 1.19 (10th). K/9: 9.0 (18th). BB/9: 3.4 (16th)
And while the Astros went up in their hitting stats in the second sixth, they went down in their major league rank in just about every pitching stat. They gave up an average of 4.7 runs per game in the second sixth.
But looking under the hood shows that the pitching staff is closer to average than bad. They had an ERA of 3.98 during the second sixth—13th best in baseball. They allowed only a .218 batting average for opposing hitters during the sixth—6th best in the majors, and their WHIP is 1.24, 12th best in the majors since May 2nd. Of course their bugaboo is the base on balls. Astros pitchers walked 3.76 batters per nine innings in the second sixth—which is 24th in baseball.
Their bullpen has indeed been bad (more on that below), but their starting pitchers have been pretty good (also, more on that below).
Team Fielding and MLB Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average: 26 (1st). Defensive Runs Saved: 24 (3rd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 4.0 (10th). Outs Above Average: 14 (3rd). Errors: 22 (T-2nd)
The Astros are an outstanding defensive team, as shown by just about every team defensive metric available. That has helped to limit the damage caused by high walk totals produced by the pitching staff. Opposing batters have a .221 batting average against Astro hurlers, and the defense has played an key role in taking away hits from the opposition. Opponents have only a .261 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against the Astros, the third lowest of any team in baseball. I’ll conclude with the same conclusion I had last month: “The Astros defense often gets overlooked, but the quality of the defense has helped the team greatly over the last four playoff seasons.”
Notable Player Performances
The Bullpen: 5.08 ERA. 4.11 FIP. 8.9 K/9. 4.9 BB/9.
Yep, it’s time to talk about the bullpen. There is good news: it could be worse. The Astros bullpen only had the 7th worst ERA in the second sixth, and only the 5th worst BB/9. But when the good news is that its just awful, not godawful. It’s not good news at all. The bullpen was below replacement level in the second sixth (-0.9 fWAR) and cost the team 2.35 wins by the Wins Probability Added (WPA) statistic. Yep, it’s as bad as you thought.
Luis Garcia. 4-0. 2.73 ERA. 33 IP. 10.9 K/9. 2.7 BB/9
The development of Luis Garcia into a high quality major league pitcher has been one of the best stories of the season. Between Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez, there is great promise that the Astros rotations of the next few years will be at a level to allow for more playoff runs. In general, the Astros starters were solid during the second sixth. They went 10-2 with a 3.34 ERA (6th in MLB) with a 1.07 WHIP (5th in MLB) and a .200 batting average against (3rd best).
Kyle Tucker. .327/.405/.602. .424 wOBA, 180 wRC+
Tucker was the Astros best hitter over the second sixth, as he reversed the slump he was in early in the season and had a breakout sixth. The Astros had 7 lineup regulars record a wRC+ over 100 and five of them recorded one 30% better than league average (Tucker, Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, and Correa).
Martin Maldonado .211/.300.366. .298 wOBA, 95 wRC+
Maldonado was dreadful in the first sixth of the season, with a slash line of .098/.179/.148. Maldonado’s offense in the second sixth was back to normal, and combined with his handling of the pitching staff and his arm (the Astros have allowed the fewest SBs in the majors), he makes positive contributions.
Brooks Raley 7.20 ERA. 2.13 FIP. 12.6 K/9. Expected BAA: .241. BABIP: .414.
I do not know what Brooks Raley did to anger the baseball gods, but I do hope the analytics department is studying the matter to prevent other players from befalling the bad luck that Raley has pitched under this season.
Their Place in the Race
Overall Record: 30-24 (.556)
2nd Place. ½ Game Behind Oakland. 3 Games Ahead of Seattle
Run Differential: +61
Expected Record: 33-21
With the calendar passing Memorial Day, it becomes useful to take an occasional peak at the standings. The Astros sit in 2nd place after the first two sixths of the season, but they have played as the best team in the American League West. Their run differential is second best in the AL (and 5th best in baseball).
The As are playing over their heads so far this season. Their record in 1-run games is 11-7 and their Pythagorean record is 28-29, 6 and a half games worse than the Astros Pythagorean record. While that advantage is baked into the records of the first third of the season, it does tell us that the Astros are an intrinsically better team. Over the long haul, the two teams actual records should look more like their Pythagorean records. Despite being a half a game down, the Astros are the clear favorites to win the AL West.
The highlight of the sixth for the Astros was the stretch of games from the come-from-behind victory in NewYork on May 6 to the series winner in Oakland on May 20th. The Astros won 11 of those 14 games, capped by six straight wins over the Angels and Rangers in the middle of that set of games.
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That hot streak came between two cold streaks. The Astros lost their first three games of the sixth (one in Tampa Bay and the first two in New York), and then had the cold snap where they lost 6 of 7 to the Rangers, Dodgers, and Padres. They are currently on a 3-game win streak.
One thing that is notable and weird about the Astros performance this season—they are playing better against good teams than they are against bad teams. The Astros are 16-10 against teams over .500 this season, and 10-11 against teams below .500.
- Glass half empty: They’ve been swept in series against the Tigers, Rockies, and Rangers.
- Glass half full: They’ve won 7 of 10 against their biggest direct competition for the AL West title—the As.
R/G: 5.35 (1st). OBP: .338 (2nd). SLG: .425 (4th). OPS: .763 (2nd). OPS+: 113 (1st).
In the first sixth report, I wrote “The Astros winning record is driven by the offense. The team is scoring runs and lots of them.” This is even more true today than it was 27 games ago. In the second sixth of the season, the Astros averaged 5.7 per game, moving up to the top spot in all of the majors. The team had a slash line of .280/.355/.445 for an OPS of .801.
To give you context on what that slash line is like, think about what you feel when Michael Brantley comes to the plate. Confident right, he’s going to give you a professional at bat with a high chance of getting on base and a good chance of hitting the ball with power. Michael Brantly has an .801 OPS on the season. On this team, he’s just an average hitter. He’s sixth on the team in OPS behind Yuli Gurriel (.881), Yordan Alvarez (.878), Jose Altuve (.842), Alex Bregman (.836), and Carols Correa (.820).
Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 4.22 (13th). FIP: 4.25 (19th). WHIP: 1.19 (10th). K/9: 9.0 (18th). BB/9: 3.4 (16th)
And while the Astros went up in their hitting stats in the second sixth, they went down in their major league rank in just about every pitching stat. They gave up an average of 4.7 runs per game in the second sixth.
But looking under the hood shows that the pitching staff is closer to average than bad. They had an ERA of 3.98 during the second sixth—13th best in baseball. They allowed only a .218 batting average for opposing hitters during the sixth—6th best in the majors, and their WHIP is 1.24, 12th best in the majors since May 2nd. Of course their bugaboo is the base on balls. Astros pitchers walked 3.76 batters per nine innings in the second sixth—which is 24th in baseball.
Their bullpen has indeed been bad (more on that below), but their starting pitchers have been pretty good (also, more on that below).
Team Fielding and MLB Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average: 26 (1st). Defensive Runs Saved: 24 (3rd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 4.0 (10th). Outs Above Average: 14 (3rd). Errors: 22 (T-2nd)
The Astros are an outstanding defensive team, as shown by just about every team defensive metric available. That has helped to limit the damage caused by high walk totals produced by the pitching staff. Opposing batters have a .221 batting average against Astro hurlers, and the defense has played an key role in taking away hits from the opposition. Opponents have only a .261 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against the Astros, the third lowest of any team in baseball. I’ll conclude with the same conclusion I had last month: “The Astros defense often gets overlooked, but the quality of the defense has helped the team greatly over the last four playoff seasons.”
Notable Player Performances
The Bullpen: 5.08 ERA. 4.11 FIP. 8.9 K/9. 4.9 BB/9.
Yep, it’s time to talk about the bullpen. There is good news: it could be worse. The Astros bullpen only had the 7th worst ERA in the second sixth, and only the 5th worst BB/9. But when the good news is that its just awful, not godawful. It’s not good news at all. The bullpen was below replacement level in the second sixth (-0.9 fWAR) and cost the team 2.35 wins by the Wins Probability Added (WPA) statistic. Yep, it’s as bad as you thought.
Luis Garcia. 4-0. 2.73 ERA. 33 IP. 10.9 K/9. 2.7 BB/9
The development of Luis Garcia into a high quality major league pitcher has been one of the best stories of the season. Between Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez, there is great promise that the Astros rotations of the next few years will be at a level to allow for more playoff runs. In general, the Astros starters were solid during the second sixth. They went 10-2 with a 3.34 ERA (6th in MLB) with a 1.07 WHIP (5th in MLB) and a .200 batting average against (3rd best).
Kyle Tucker. .327/.405/.602. .424 wOBA, 180 wRC+
Tucker was the Astros best hitter over the second sixth, as he reversed the slump he was in early in the season and had a breakout sixth. The Astros had 7 lineup regulars record a wRC+ over 100 and five of them recorded one 30% better than league average (Tucker, Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, and Correa).
Martin Maldonado .211/.300.366. .298 wOBA, 95 wRC+
Maldonado was dreadful in the first sixth of the season, with a slash line of .098/.179/.148. Maldonado’s offense in the second sixth was back to normal, and combined with his handling of the pitching staff and his arm (the Astros have allowed the fewest SBs in the majors), he makes positive contributions.
Brooks Raley 7.20 ERA. 2.13 FIP. 12.6 K/9. Expected BAA: .241. BABIP: .414.
I do not know what Brooks Raley did to anger the baseball gods, but I do hope the analytics department is studying the matter to prevent other players from befalling the bad luck that Raley has pitched under this season.
Their Place in the Race
Overall Record: 30-24 (.556)
2nd Place. ½ Game Behind Oakland. 3 Games Ahead of Seattle
Run Differential: +61
Expected Record: 33-21
With the calendar passing Memorial Day, it becomes useful to take an occasional peak at the standings. The Astros sit in 2nd place after the first two sixths of the season, but they have played as the best team in the American League West. Their run differential is second best in the AL (and 5th best in baseball).
The As are playing over their heads so far this season. Their record in 1-run games is 11-7 and their Pythagorean record is 28-29, 6 and a half games worse than the Astros Pythagorean record. While that advantage is baked into the records of the first third of the season, it does tell us that the Astros are an intrinsically better team. Over the long haul, the two teams actual records should look more like their Pythagorean records. Despite being a half a game down, the Astros are the clear favorites to win the AL West.
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