The results of Rookie of the Year award can be quite curious . Some years it goes to the combination of future MVP winners, like is did in 2012 when Mike Trout and Bryce Harper won it. And some years it goes to players you forgot about very quickly, as in did in 2009 when Andrew Bailey and Chris Coughlan won it.
One explanation for these inconsistent results is the inconsistency of each class of rookie major leaguers. Some years are stronger than others. But some of this inconsistency is based on the views of Rookie of the Year voters, who seem to shift their standards more frequently than voters for other awards.
This is different than the Cy Young Award, where voters always seem to want to identify the best pitcher--full stop. And different from voting for the MVP, which has revolved around different interpretations of value over time. In the contemporary era, most voters seem to identify value primarily with who played the best, regardless of how the team performed (none of this year's six MVP "finalists" are on a playoff team).
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| Randy Arozarena (C) Wander Franco (L), Luis Garcia (R) |
But with Rookie of the Year, there is no agreed upon standard for how to vote for the award. As a result, voting often comes down to narrative. Those 2009 voters are explained by the voters' preference for big numbers which they can easily put into stories about their vote. Coughlan hit over .300 that season, giving a nice numbers hook for voters (who ignored his horrific defense--negative 17 defensive runs saved). Bailey took over as the A's closer, saving 26 games with a 1.84 ERA.
This inconsistency in voters' standards and the preference for narrative that makes if hard to handicap this year's race for American League Rookie of the Year, which will be awarded on Monday night. There is a narrative that could benefit each of the three finalists, including Luis Garcia of the Astros. Garcia may have the weakest positive case of the three finalists, but his case lacks strong narrative negatives, unlike the two other finalists.
Last week, MLB announced that Garcia was one of the three "finalists" for the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year award, along with Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco, both of the Tampa Bay Rays. I'll go through the narrative explanation for voting for each candidate, and then the narratives that might work against them. I'll start with Arozarena and Franco before finishing with Garcia.
Randy Arozarena
The case for Arozarena is simple--he was the best rookie in the American League in 2021. Arozarena slashed .274/.356/.459 in a 604 plate appearances for the Rays. He slugged 20 homers and stole 20 bases, and his 4.1 bWAR led all major league rookies.
This sounds like an open and shut case. But there are a couple of narratives working against Arozarena. The first is that he underwhelmed expectations this season, which were built up by his ridiculous numbers in the 2020 post season. Arozarena hit 20 home runs in 141 games in 2021, but hit 10 in 20 games in last year's playoffs (and yes, I know it's too soon fellow Astro fan).
And, Arozarena does not seem like a rookie. The 2020 season was shortened but the rookie eligibility rules stayed the same. This allowed Arozarena to retain rookie eligibility as his month on the COVID-IL in 2020 did not count against his rookie eligibility. And heck, 2020 wasn't even Arozarena's debut season, He played 19 games for the Cardinals in 2019 before he was dealt to the Rays. 2020 wasn't even his first playoffs; Arozarena has 5 PAs for the Cardinals in the 2019 playoffs.
So Arozarena has a strong narrative going for him, and some other ones going against him.
Wander Franco
Some rookies of the year went on to Hall of Fame careers, like the first ever winner Jackie Robinson. Greats like Willie McCovey (1959), Tom Seaver (1967), Cal Ripken (1982), and Jeff Bagwell (1991) have all won the award. So has Bob Hamelin. And Carl Morton. Joe Charbonneau won the award in 1980 and Jason Jennings (shudder) won it in 2002.
Some voters want to look back at the award a decade from now and say "Hey, we picked a good one" like they did in 2012 with Trout and Harper. They may not want to look back and say 'Well, that certainly was a choice" like Couglan in 2009."
And if that is the standard, Wander Franco looks like the 2021 rookie most likely to be a Hall of Famer. He was the top prospect in baseball, and he slashed .288/.347/.463 for a 129 OPS+ in 308 PAs. Franco was the youngest player in the majors this year, and his 43 game on base streak tied Frank Robinson (the 1956 NL Rookie of the Year) for the longest ever by a player 20 or under.
This narrative is strong, but Franco only played 70 games and had only 308 plate appearances. For context Chas McCormick had 320 plate appearances in 108 games in a part time role for the Astros.. Franco was not called up until June 22, the Rays' 73rd game, and also was on the IL for a brief stint in September, Players who have been called up in June have won before (e.g. Carlos Correa in 2015 and Yordan Alvarez in 2019), but no hitters have had as few plate appearances at Franco.
Luis Garcia
The third finalist is the Astros Luis Garcia. And Garcia may have a Goldilocks path to the Rookie of the Year award. Arozarena has been a rookie too long, and Franco has been too short in his time as a rookie. But for Garcia, it may be just right.
Garcia pitched 155.1 innings for the Astros in 2021. He was credited with 11 wins and posted a 3.48 ERA and a 3.34 K/BB ratio. Garcia posted 3.0 bWAR. That is behind both Franco and Arozarena, so that will hurt his chances of finishing first.
But Garcia may have the best narrative of any of the three. It feels like Garcia's rookie season, as he spent the entire year in the majors, but his 12.1 inning cup of coffee in 2020 does not make anyone think his eligibility should be expired. And with starting pitching at a premium in contemporary baseball, Garcia's 28 starts (49th best in the majors) and 155.1 innings pitched (51st most in the majors) may give voters extra reason to vote for him.
Handicapping the Race
All three candidates have good narratives to attract rookie of the year votes. But Arozarena and Franco have narratives that are cleaner to understand. Best player this year and best player into the future are arguments that quite compelling.
Garcia's chances rest on voters weighting the negatives for Arozarena and Franco highly and thus regarding Garcia--who has the least negatives--as having the best narrative for their votes.
The other possibility is that voters who regard Arozarena's strengths highest regard Franco's weaknesses highest, and vice versa. So this presumes that many of Arozarena's voters give Franco 3rd place votes (or lower) and the same thing happens for those who put Franco in first place. If these votes are relatively evenly split and Garcia gets a number of first place votes, Garcia could win thanks to getting more 2nd place votes than his other two competitors.
I do not expect Garcia to win when the award is announced on Monday night. But I would not be shocked if he does. Let's hope for a pleasant surprise when the results are announced.
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