The Astros finished off the Red Sox on Friday night, winning Game 6
5-0.
The Astros won three straight to close out the series on the strength of
their run prevention. Astros pitching allowed Boston batters a mere 3 runs,
striking out 25 while allowing only 10 hits, 10 walks, and 1 hit batsman. Red
Sox hitters slashed .111/.208/.244 in the last three games of the series.
This is a big contrast to the first three games of the series, when the Red
Sox scored 25 runs to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Astro pitchers allowed a
slash line of .296/.374/.546. They gave up 32 hits to batsmen from Boston,
including 6 doubles and 9 homers.
Who is responsible for the big turnaround?
Perhaps it is Brent Strom. The 73-year-old came to the Astros coaching staff
before Dusty Baker, but he came before even A.J. Hinch. Strom has led the
Astros pitchers since 2014 and has developed a reputation as one of MLB's best
pitching coaches. Despite being the age of a presidential candidate, he has a
reputation for being on the leading edge of the analytics movement in modern
pitching.
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| Brent Strom. Part of the Astros ALCS Pitching Turnaround |
Strom's job is no longer showing veteran aces from other organizations how to use analytics to maximize their late career pitching. It’s to shepherd a mostly young and home-grown rotation to limit the opponent’s scoring so the Astros first-rate offense can outscore them. He’s been just as good in both roles, showcasing his diversity of skills as a pitching coach.
Strom made two specific adjustments in this series that paid huge dividends.
After Game 3, Strom publicly discussed the idea that his hurlers were tipping
pitches, saying
to Ken Rosenthal, “We need to be very cognizant of the little things, tipping-type
things, that they are very astute at.” It is unclear to me if the Astros
actually made changes to their behavior, or if Strom just found an external explanation
for the Astros woes that his pitchers thought they could correct. But whichever
is correct, the results speak for themselves.
Strom also got Luis Garcia to adjust the position of his foot on the
pitching rubber. While this move was made to reduce the knee pain that forced
Garcia from his Game 2 start in the second inning, it had a big effect on his
pitching. As
Jake Kaplan pointed out, “[d]uring the regular season, [Garcia] hit 97 mph
only once…On Friday, he hit 97 twice in the first inning alone and eight times
among his 47 fastballs. His heater averaged 95 mph, two ticks better than in
the regular season.
Perhaps Martin Maldonado is responsible for the turnaround.
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| Martin Maldonado. Part of the Astros ALCS Turnaround |
Dusty Baker also praised his catcher in an interview with the MLB network, “I know Maldy didn’t have a good offensive series, but you know, your catcher is so very, very, very important in the equation of pitching. And Maldy’s in charge out there, and these guys trust him. I remember Tony LaRussa saying years ago that Yadier Molina didn’t have to hit anything, just as long as he directed his pitchers through the game. And that’s what Maldy did.
Of course, Maldonado’s contributions were more than just game calling. The Red Sox biggest rally was in the 7th inning, when Kendall Graveman issued a one out walk and Alex Verdugo’s high chop went over the head of Yuli Gurriel at 1B to put runners at the corner with 1 out. With a 3-2 count, Cora sent Verdugo to second. Graveman struck out pinch hitter Travis Shaw and Maldonado unleashed an absolute missile of a throw, right at the bag for Carlos Correa to tag out Verdugo. The throw-‘em-out part of that double play was huge, and no other Red Sox reached base in the game.
Certainly, a large part of the responsibility for the turnaround falls on the shoulders of those who actually threw the pitches. Both Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia recovered from bad outings in the first two games of this series to throw gems in their Game 5 and Game 6 starts. Valdez went 8 strong on Wednesday in Boston, allowing only 5 baserunners. Garcia walked only 1, allowed only 1 hit, and struck out 7 in his Game 6 start.
The Astros bullpen has been excellent this postseason and were sharpest in these last 3 games, allowing no runs in 12 innings. They held off Red Sox bats in Game 4 to give the offense time to find their stride and break out with the 7 run top of the ninth. In Game 5, Valdez gave all but Ryne Stanek a rest, allowing the bullpen to reset for Game 6, where they allowed only 2 baserunners
And perhaps Dusty Baker is responsible for the turnaround.
Entering the series, Alex Cora had a superior reputation to Baker as a postseason tactician. Cora had won all 5 series that he managed, and was credited as a big contributor to the Red Sox run to the World Series title in 2018. Baker had won only 6 of the 16 postseason series that he had managed, and had only reached the World Series once despite taking 10 previous teams to the playoffs.
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| Dusty Baker. Part of the Astros ALCS Pitching Turnaround |
But the managerial advantage turned out to be for the Astros. Cora made a number of curious moves with his bullpen—such as bringing in Martin Perez down one in the top of the 9th in Game 4 and bringing in Adam Ottovino last night down two in the 9th. Cora’s failure to get the right guy up at the right time is demonstrated by the stats for his best reliever Garrett Whitlock. Whitlock allowed only 1 run in 4 innings in the series, the most inning of any Red Sox reliever. But Cora only got 0.01 WPA from Garrett Whitlock, despite his effective work.
Cora’s decision to have Verdugo steal on the 3-2 count in the 7th reflected his attempts to take unnecessary risks to force the action. He pinch hit liberally last night, but not in an effective way (is Danny Santana worth a postseason at bat). These moves did not pay off.
Dusty Baker had the advantage of having a superior roster. His lineup is pretty much set-ii-and-forget it, which is what he did. He let his batters cook and remained patient waiting for his team’s bats to come through. They did.
On the pitching front, Baker had to be more alert to make decisions, but all of his decisions (made in conjunction with Strom) paid off in the last three games.
In Game 4, Baker quickly hooked a struggling Zack Greinke before the game got out of hand, and turned to LHP Brooks Raley to get a platoon advantage over the lefties at the front of the Red Sox lineup. He then got 3 excellent innings from Cristian Javier as a longman and used Kendall Graveman for 2 innings to keep the Red Sox off the board.
In Game 5, Valdez’s efficiency allowed him to get into the sixth inning before facing the third time through the order. By then, Astro bats had broken the game open and given the team a big lead. Baker (and Strom) concluded that between his big lead and the need to rest his bullpen, he would send Valdez out until he faltered. Valdez didn’t. He induced a double play to get out of a jam in the 7th and retired the side in order in the 8th.
In Game 6, Baker was aggressive in going to his (now rested) bullpen. He removed Garcia with two outs in the sixth after he allowed his first hit (and second baserunner) of the game. Garcia’s efficiency meant this was only two batters into the third time through the order. Phil Maton was called on to get out lefty swinger Rafael Devers, which he did on one pitch. And the Graveman-Stanek-Pressly combination maintained the shutout.
In baseball, momentum exists until it doesn’t. After two blowout victories in Games 2 and 3, the Astros seemed on the ropes. But that turned around quickly.
An old truism in baseball says that momentum is your next day’s starting pitcher. We should trust this truism more than constant analysis of “momentum.” When the Astros pitch well, they win. The Astros scored 5 runs or more every game of this postseason except 1. The offense is excellent and when the pitching holds down the opponent, they win. They did that in Games 4, 5, and 6.
On to the World Series.
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