Drama-Less Games, Maton & Javier's Postseason Heroics, and the Impact of the Morton Injury: My Thoughts on Games 1 & 2
Some postseason games turn on a big hit late, or a pitcher getting out of a big jam to save a game. Some are won because relievers stem the tide in the middle innings to give the offense a chance to come back, and many are won today because a manager chooses the right reliever for the right spot, or the wrong one in the wrong spot.
Games 1 and 2 of the 2021 World Series had none of those elements. In each game, one team played a lot better than their opponent, and they won as a result. In Game 1, the Astros pitched poorly and hit poorly. Or the Braves hit well and pitched well. In Game 2, it was the opposite.
 |
| Win Probability--Game 1 |
The offense in Game 1 was nearly as bad as Valddz's pitching. Astros bats managed only 8 hits, with none leaving the yard. They struck out 11 times and were 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position.
The story was quite different on both ends in Game 2. Jose Urquidy had an excellent start. While he gave up 6 hits in 5 innings on the bump, he did not allow a walk. His biggest moment was the at-bat Jorge Soler in the bottom of the 1st. After striking out Eddie Rosario and Freddie Freeman to start the game, Ozzie Albies reached on a swinging bunt and Austin Riley hit an opposite field liner to start a potential Braves rally. Urquidy squelched the potential rally by striking out Soler, keeping the Braves from striking first and eliminating memories of Valdez's shaky start in Game 1 for Astro fans.
 |
| Win Probability--Game 2 |
The offense came through with a single run in the bottom of the first, and took the lead for good in the bottom of the 2nd. The Astros bunched 5 singles in 6 hitters. These hits, combined with Eddie Rosario inexplicably throwing to an unoccupied third base, plated 4 runs. The Astros would never look back tonight.
One goal of these game recaps is to highlight why the Astros won or lost. There is not much need for that in for Games 1 and 2. The explanation is simple; one team played better than the other. You can see from the win probability charts for Games 1 and 2 the lack of drama in both games. In both games, one team takes the lead early and their probability of winning moves slowly and steadily toward 1 as the game continues.
But that sets up a tied series that will go at least 5, and will likely go more. Drama awaits.
* * *
Dusty Baker had another good game tonight. He made an aggressive move to remove Jose Urquidy after he had pitched 5 innings and had faced 21 batters. Urquidy's changeup makes him effective against left handed batters, and so Baker let Urquidy face Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies (two lefties and a switch hitter) in the 5th.
But with 5 righties among the Braves final 6 hitters tonight, Baker turned to Cristian Javier to face this pocket of Braves hitters. Javier allowed a double to Jorge Soler in the 6th and a walk to Dansby Swanson in the 7th, but retired the other 4 batters that he faced, including 2 by strikeout.
When the lefties came back up again, Baker replaced Javier with Phil Maton, who retired Rosario and Freeman. The Braves were scoreless in both innings.
In the eighth, Baker once again made an aggressive move. With the 3-4-5 batters due, Baker went to his best reliever, Ryan Pressly, who threw a scoreless inning, striking out 2 while allowing only a walk. Kendall Graveman closed out the game with a 1-2-3 ninth.
Maton and Javier have been excellent performers for the Astros out of the bullpen in these playoffs. Maton has allowed only 1 run in 8 1/3 innings this postseason. He's allowed only 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8. With a lack of high quality left handed options in the bullpen, Baker and Brent Strom have tabbed Maton and his high spin curveball to get outs from left handed batters like Rosario and Freeman. Maton had a shaky 2021 regular season, but he's been nails in the postseason, as he was again tonight.
Javier has pitched even better than Maton. He's pitched nine postseason innings, and has not given up a run. While Javier's control remains an issue (he's give up 5 walks), he's limited hits (only 4) and is missing bats--he's struck out 15. Javier has been been particularly key in the early to middle innings, often replacing the innings of starters who were pulled early. Expect to see him again in Game 4 when the starting pitching options for the Astros are limited.
The Astros bullpen appeared to be the team's biggest weakness all season. The Astros trade deadline deals focused on getting arms for the bullpen that could contribute in the playoffs, and the team moved Javier to the bullpen after starting in the first third of the season with the hopes of having a multi-inning weapon to use in October. While the regular season performance of both Maton and Javier were shaky at times, their postseason performance so far has been excellent. They have made huge contributions to getting the Astros to the World Series. And they made contributions tonight to get the team's first World Series win in 2021.
* * *
The injury to Charlie Morton is a serious bummer, because Morton was of course a fan favorite during his time in Houston. He is respected as a pitcher and competitor by Astros players, and even more highly respected as a person and a teammate.
But Morton's injury creates a big issue for the Braves in this series. The strength of the Braves pitching staff is the top 3 in their rotation. Their starting depth falls off after that. In Game 4 of the Division Series, the Braves brought Morton back on short rest for an abbreviated outing (3.2 IP). In Game 4 of the NLCS, they used Drew Smyly as a "bulk guy" after Jesse Chavez went an inning as an opener.
Smyly pitched an inning of relief tonight, giving up a first pitch home run to Jose Altuve and a double and a walk. He may pitch "bulk innings" in Game 4 or Game 5. It's unclear who the Braves will use in the game, but it may by Kyle Wright (who pitched a scoreless inning tonight) or Tucker Davidson, who replaced Morton on the Braves active roster.
Regardless of who the Braves turn to, it is highly unlikely that Morton's replacement will last as long as Morton would have. This will add to the total of innings that the Braves bullpen has to pitch this series.
The injury to Lance McCullers shifted the advantage in pitching this series to the Braves. The unfortunate injury to Morton may push it back to the Astros.
Comments