If This is Your Worst Period, You're Actually a Good Baseball Team: A Fifth Sixth Report

I spent last night watching my team get battered around in Southern California by what I thought was an inferior team when the game starter, but don't think that's the case after the game. And of course, I speak of the LSU Tigers, my favorite college football team.

The Astros had a particularly bad night too, dropping a game 10-2 to the Padres. That game also marked the end of the fifth sixth of the baseball season. 

Here at Breathin' Orange Fire, we analyze the baseball season in sixth--each is a 27 game segment that corresponds to, but not exactly, the sixth months of a baseball season. I use sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games. 

For example, the Astros won 14 games in the fifth sixth of the season. It is their worst sixth of the season. The Astros won 15 games in the first two sixths, 18 in the third, and 17 in the fourth sixth of the season. 

But they lost only 13 games, for a winning record in the sixth. And this tells a big part of the story of the Astros in the 2021 season. While this team is not the 100 win juggernaut we saw from 2017 to 2019, it is a high quality team, and one that has played consistently well--even when not playing all that well, as was this case this sixth. This has put the Astros at the top of the AL West and on track to play in the playoffs for the fifth straight season. 

Overall Record:  69-56 (.590)
Record This Sixth: 14-13 (.518)
On Pace for a Record of:  96-66

The fifth sixth was stop and start for the Astros. They lost the opener of a series to Minnesota. There was a four game win streak with wins over the Rockies and the Angels, followed by a four game losing streak of close losses to the Angels in a series finale and the Royals in that annoying series in Kansas City. They rebounded by blowing out the Mariners twice in a row, only to lose the series finale to Seattle and home opener to Kansas City. They won the series in Arlington, only to lose the next series in the Pacific Northwest. 

If this is the worst stretch of the season for the Astros, then that's actually a good problem to have. If you can go .500 in your worst stretch, then your team is certainly better than .500.  But that fact has not made the two steps forward, two steps back nature of this sixth any easy to stomach for Astro fans. In many ways, it has made it worse. 

Team Offense & MLB Rank.  
R/G: 5.26 (2nd). OBP: .338 (1st). SLG: .438 (3rd). OPS: .776 (2nd). OPS+: 112 (1st). 

Overall, the Astros have one of the best offenses in the majors, as seen by their season long statistics. They are the top 3 in MLB in each of the categories listed above.

But from a scoring standpoint, they were in a slump in the fifth sixth--scoring 4.4 runs per game in the sixth. Their 119 runs were the 18th most in baseball since August 5th. That's not good.

But other measures show they were a very good offense in that period. Their batting average was .269 (2nd in MLB); their on base percentage was .330 (8th); and their wRC+ was 110 (6th).  These numbers indicate the Astros should have scored more runs, and their relative slump in run scoring should thus be short lived. 

That being said, the Astros did have some more pedestrian numbers this sixth. Their slugging percentage was .421, which was 15th best in MLB, and their wOBA of .324 was 13th best. 

Overall, this is a very good offense, as seen by the season long numbers. They have slumped a little in the second half of the season, but some of that is bad luck.  Regression to the mean suggests they will heat up in September. 

. 

Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 3.96 (5th). FIP: 4.07 (13th). WHIP: 1.21 (8th). K/9: 9.2 (13th). BB/9: 3.3 (13th) 

While the bats struggled to score runs in the fifth sixth, the pitching staff helped to pick up the slack. They gave up only 102 runs in the sixth, which was 5th best in the MLB since August 5th. Their ERA over the sixth was 3.66, which was 6th best in MLB. 

A big key for the Astros pitching staff this sixth was cutting down on their walks. They walked 3.06 batters per nine innings in the period, which was 11th best in baseball. Being 11th best is usually nothing to write home about, but the Astros walked 3.82 batters per nine in the fourth sixth, which was 27th best in baseball. It was a notable improvement. The Astros are not a high strikeout pitching staff (13th best at K/9 overall, and 10th best during the fifth sixth), so keeping the walks down is a big key to their success on the bump.

The starting pitchers had a great sixth. They posted a 3.21 ERA in their 27 starts, which was 3rd best in baseball. They average 5.71 innings per start, which was the best in baseball for that span. As I have written before, the Astro rotation lacks a true ace, but is deep with quality pitchers. That quality showed in the fifth sixth. 

After an excellent fourth sixth of the season, the Astro bullpen regressed back to their mean, if not past it. Astro relievers posted a 4.47 ERA in the fifth sixth, which was 21st best in the majors. There were some indications they pitched in some bad luck. Their FIP was 4.08 and their xFIP was 3.74. But while those numbers are better, they are more midlevel than playoff caliber. 

The good news about the bullpen in the fifth sixth is that it was missing bats. They struck out 11.22 batters per 9 innings, which was 3rd best in baseball. But they also missed the plate a lot. Astro relievers walked 3.74 batters per nine innings, which was 18th best in MLB. Put together, the bullpen had a 3.00 K/BB ratio in the sixth, which was 7th best in the majors. 

Team Fielding and MLB Rank

Fielding Runs Above Average 45 (3rd). Defensive Runs Saved: 50 (7th). Ultimate Zone Rating: 15.1 (6th). Outs Above Average 14 (6th).  Errors: 53 (1st). 

I continue to highlight the Astros defense in these updates because it it an important part of the success of the team, and a big part of how they are preventing runs.  Astros pitchers allow a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .273, which is 3rd best in baseball. Another way to think of this is that while the average batted ball is a base hit on 29% of the time, it's only a base hit against the Astros 27% of the time. 

A big part of the Astros quality defense is that they have a high defensive floor. Using the Out Above Average measure used on Baseball Savant, the Astros have only three players who have recorded negative numbers on this metric. And these negative numbers are not that negative--Michael Brantley and Yordan Alvarez both have cost the team 1 out above average in the outfield, while Robel Garcia has cost 3 outs in the infield. But of the 11 other Astro fielders for whom Statcast has data, 9 have taken outs away from the opposition. 

 

Notable Player Performances

Yordan Alvarez. .293/.346/.616 .402 wOBA. 163 wRC+ 8 HR. 14 Runs. 20 RBI

Yordan Alvarez was born to crush baseballs. In the fifth sixth, he did that a lot, and we are exceedingly lucky that he does it for our team. As always, thank you to Josh Fields for your service. 

Jake Meyers  .325/.345/.500  .359 wOBA  134 wRC+

Chas McCormick  .310/.359/.448  348 wOBA  126 wRC+

James Click traded Myles Straw because he thought the combination of McCormick and Meyers were as good as the combination of Straw and McCormick. One month in, Click seems to have nailed that part of the the evaluation on this trade. 

Jose Altuve  .245/.304/.330. .281 wOBA. 81 wRC+. 0 HR.

Altuve has slumped in the fifth sixth. These numbers are not dreadful--Fangraphs says that Altuve was 0.2 wins above a replacement level player in this time period, thanks in large part to his positive defensive contributions. But these are far from what we expect from the former MVP. Dusty might consider moving him off the leadoff spot. 

Jake Odorizzi  5 GS. 26 IP. 2.77 ERA. 4.13 FIP. 8.65 K/9. 3.46 BB/9

Astro fans have maligned Jake Odirizzi throughout the season, and with good reason. He's clearly our sixth best starter, and may not make the post-season roster. In the fifth sixth, Odorizzi prevented runs, but did so as much to good fortune as to an improvement in quality. 

Yimi Garcia  11 G. 9.0 IP. 12 Ks. 2 BBs. FIP: 1.16

I was skeptical that Garcia was an upgrade when James Click acquired him at the trade deadline. So far, Garcia has been a big contributor.

Rafael Montero.  4G. 6 IP. 0.00 ERA

Montero is on the IL and it looks like his season is done. Montero is a free agent after this season, so these may be the only 6 innings he pitches in an Astros uniform. If so, he would be one of 11 players in history to record a 0.00 ERA with the Astros. He would have the 2nd most IP of any of those 11, trailing Randy Hennis, who held opponents scoreless in 9 2/3 IP in the 1990 season. 

Their Place in the Race
Overall Record:    79-56  (.585)
1st Place.  5 1/2 Game Ahead of Oakland and Seattle
Run Differential:  +167
Expected Record: 84-51

The good news for the Astros--despite having their worst sixth of the season, they expanded their lead over the A's. According to Fangraphs, they have a 96.2% chance of winning the division. They had a 91.0% chance of winning the division when the sixth began, so they have improved their standing since then. 

In my write-up of the fourth sixth, I wrote "The Astros' consistency--their ability to have a winning record across all four sixths they've played so far has put them in an excellent position."  That is still true today.

It is difficult for baseball teams to perform consistently well across an entire season. Some of that is injuries and bad performance, and some of that is just luck.  There are reasons to think both about the Astros performance in the fifth sixth. But despite that, they ended up with a winning record. Their competition in the division has not been able to do that, and as a result, they cannot keep up with the Astros. 

Of course, the glass half empty perspective on the fifth sixth is that the Astros did not play a strong set of baseball teams. Before they came to San Diego this series, all of the teams they played this sixth are not in playoff position (I guess the Mariners are technically in the playoff race). Entering this sixth, I thought they would play better. 

But as the calendar turns toward the final stretch of the season, the Astros are in a strong position in their division. This team is going to the playoffs. Let's hope they can play better in the final stretch of the season so that they can build momentum and wrap up the division as early as possible.