Taking Control of the AL West: A Fourth Sixth Report

With a loss last night at Dodger Stadium, the Astros completed their West Coast road trip at 4-4. The end of the road trip marks a clear inflection point in the season. It ends a trip where the Astros battled three playoff contenders, including the team with the best record in the NL (Giants) and the NL's World Series favorite (Dodgers). It marks a shift in the Astros schedule to series of games in the bottom half of the standings.

And, most importantly here at the Breathin' Orange Fire blog, it marks the end of the fourth sixth of the season. The Astros have not played 108 games, exactly two-thirds of their scheduled 162 on the season. 

In the fourth sixth of the season, the Astros took control of the American League West race, putting distance between themselves and the As, their biggest contender for the division crown. 

As a reminder, here at Breathin' Orange Fire, we divide the baseball season up into sixths.  Each sixth is 27 games, which is very close to a month. I use sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games. In the first half of the season, using sixths allows one to easily play #onpaceguy. We can't do that in the back half, but we can assess where the team is at and what is succeeding (and what is not). 

Overall Record:  65-43 (.602)
Record This Sixth: 17-10 (.630)
On Pace for a Record of:  98-64

From a record standpoint, the Astros have been very consistent this season. They went 15-12 in the first two sixths of the season, then 18-9 in the third sixth and 17-10 in the fourth sixth. This steadiness has helped the Astros maintain a pace that their AL West rivals have not been able to match up with. 

There is more green (wins) than red (losses) in the Astros sparkline graph for the fourth sixth, and for the whole season.

The Astros got off to a hot start this sixth by winning their first 6 games against the Indians and As. They then lost 5 of 7 in the series bookending the All-Star break. They got healthy by winning 5 of 6 in a homestand against the Indians and and Rangers before going .500 on the West Coast road trip. 

Team Offense & MLB Rank.  
R/G: 5.44 (1st). OBP: .340 (1st). SLG: .441 (2nd). OPS: .781 (2nd). OPS+: 115 (1st). 

The Astros offense slumped in over the fourth third--with a tea slash line of .237/.304/.424 for an OPS of ,728. This was 18th best in the MLB.  

But the offense has remained productive, scoring 4.96 runs per game. That would be 3rd in the majors in run scored/game over the season as a whole. But of course, offense went up throughout the league in July due to warm weather and MLB's enhanced enforcement on its rules about applying foreign substances to the ball. The 134 runs scored by the Astros is 15th in MLB since July 1. 

The Astros had a huge slash line in the third sixth--.294/.377/.490.  They are not as good as that big slash line nor as middling as their slash line in the fourth sixth. They are likely to end up in the middle of both for the rest of the season, which will be as one of the handful of best offenses in the majors. 

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Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 4.06 (10th). FIP: 4.18 (13th). WHIP: 1.22 (10th). K/9: 9.2 (14th). BB/9: 3.4 (16th) 

The Astros pitching staff maintained itself as an above average but not dominant pitching staff in the fourth sixth of the season. The pitching stats and ranks changed little over the past 27 games. 

Astro hurlers had more swing-and-miss stuff in the fourth sixth. They struck out 9.95 batters per nine innings, third best in the majors during that time period. But they also were wild in the fourth sixth, walking 3.82 batters each nine innings; that's the 4th highest in MLB. This high strikeout, high walk style of pitching put the Astros right in the middle--15th in the majors--in K/BB ratio for the sixth. 

The Astro starters had a 4.25 ERA for the sixth, but that was above average. It was 12th best in the majors during that time period. And despite Astro starters not going far into their outing on the West Coast swing, overall Astro starters averaged 5.4 innings per start, right about league average.

The Astro bullpen has been maligned all season, and with good reason. But they were good in the fourth sixth. Astro relievers had an ERA of 3.23 over the sixth, which was 7th best in baseball. With the deadline moves made by the front office, there is reason to be optimistic that the Astro bullpen has turned a corner. 

Team Fielding and MLB Rank

Fielding Runs Above Average 38 (3rd). Defensive Runs Saved: 46 (3rd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 14.0 (6th). Outs Above Average 23 (3rd).  Errors: 31 (1st). 

The Astros continue to show that they are an outstanding defensive team. Astros pitchers allow a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .264, in large part because of the excellent defense they play.

The Astros continue to be one of the most aggressive shifting teams in the majors, and those shifts are working for them. The Astros have been credited with making 462 "out of zone" plays this season, the tops in baseball. 

 

Notable Player Performances

Kyle Tucker  .310/.368/.678  .435 wOBA. 8 HR. 20 RBI. 5 SB

Remember when Kyle Tucker was struggling in the month of April?  Me neither. In the fourth sixth, Tucker was the Astros best hitter, sporting huge power numbers over the 27 game sample. With Myles Straw now in Cleveland and the team not having the DH while playing in National League parks, Tucker has been called upon to play centerfield, which he has done credibly. 

Carlos Correa .190/.266/.333  .264 wOBA.

Correa was hot in June and has what I described as "a monster sixth."  This is basically the opposite, as Correa was the team's worst hitter among regulars in the fourth sixth. Though Correa's excellent defense allowed him to record a (barely) positive fWAR in the sixth. 

Lance McCullers  6 GS. 37 IP. 3.16 ERA   12.4 K/9. 3.89 BB/9 2.22 FIP 3.6% HR/FB

Lance was the embodiment of the high strikeout, high walk style of Astros pitching in the fourth sixth. He was able to go deep into games and was credited with 4 wins and only 1 loss. His low FIP suggests that he pitched in bad luck, but his comically low HR/FB% indicates he may not have been. 

Ryne Stanek.  14 G. 13.0 IP. 2.08 ERA. 11.77 K/9  5.54 BB/9. 2.40 FIP

Cristian Javier:  8 G. 11.2 IP. 2.31 ERA. 13.89 K/9  4.63 BB/9. 2.74 FIP

Ryan Pressly:  12 G. 12 IP.  3.00 ERA. 12.00 K/9  2.25 BB/9.  3.42 FIP

The back end of the bullpen was very good at keeping runs off the board in the fourth sixth. They struck a bunch of guys out, though they did allow a bunch of guys to reach via walk. The low FIPs show the high quality of relief innings the Astros got in the fourth sixth. 

Jake Odorizzi  6 GS. 28.1 IP. 6.04 ERA. 6.04 K/9  3.49 BB/9 6.04 FIP

Yes, you're not imagining things. Jake Odorizzi has been a bad pitcher this sixth. 

Their Place in the Race
Overall Record:    65-43 (.602)
1st Place.  4 1/2 Game Ahead of Oakland. 7 1/2 Games Ahead of Seattle
Run Differential:  +150
Expected Record: 68-40

In the fourth sixth, the Astros took command of the American League West. While the boys in orange and blue went 17-10 in the sixth, the A's went 13-14. This has produced a 4 1/2 game gap between the two teams.

The A's were able to outperform their mediocre run differential in the first half of the season, but over the long term, a team's record tends to move towards its expected record. That has been what has happened for the As. Their current expect record is now 60-49, only 1 game below their actual record of 61-48. 

The Astros' consistency--their ability to have a winning record across all four sixths they've played so far has put them in an excellent position--they have a large lead in their division and have, at the moment, the best record in the American League and the second best in the majors. 

And there is more good news.  Starting tonight, the Astros will play 25 straight games against teams who are not in playoff position right now. None of those teams have a positive run differential. The Astros have already finished playing the top teams in the American League Central and the National League West (our interleague opponent this year). They will get to face the teams at the bottom of these divisions (Twins, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Rockies).  They have only 12 games left with teams currently in playoff position. This is a chance to expand the division lead.