The origins of the term "dog days of summer" comes from the fact that Sirius, the "dog star" would "rise" into the night sky in the middle of summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The ancient Greeks connected the dog star with "heat, drought, sudden thunderstorms, lethargy, fever, mad dogs, and bad luck." In short, the dog days are August in Texas.
And based on how the Astros have been playing recently, Astro fans can be forgiven for identifying with the lethargy, bad luck, fever and madness associated with the dog days of summer.
The series this week in Kansas City was certainly maddening. The Astros played 4 close games against a team well out of the playoff picture, losing 3 of them. The losses combined bad BABIP luck and a set of of questionable pitching decisions (keeping Jake Odorizzi in too long on Monday; using Blake Taylor in a high leverage situation on Wednesday) that did not pay off for Dusty Baker.
And the series against the Royals seemed a microcosm of the Astros recent play. They have been losing close games; they've gone 1-4 in 1-run games since the All Star Break, and lost a pair of one run games in KC. Their offense has slumped since the break, and they only managed 4.0 runs per game in the City of Fountains.
The Astros have been without their full starting lineup since Alex Bregman went on the IL in mid-June with a quad injury that seems determined not to heal. And for the last two weeks, the team has been without a second starter. First Yuli Gurriel was out with a neck injury and then Kyle Tucker went on the IL as part of health and safety protocols (a reminder to vax up, everybody).
And the Astros continue to struggle with bad teams this year. They are only 26-21 against teams below .500, and are only 6-7 in their last 13 games, all against second division teams.
Yet there are signs that the Astros woes are overstated and quite possibly a reflection of fans suffering through the dog days of summer themselves.
First of all, the Astros recent 4 game losing streak was matched by their closest pursuers in the AL West, the Oakland A's. In fact, the Astros lead over the A's has remained 2 1/2 games at the end of every day for a full week now. As frustrating as the series in Kansas City was, it did not hurt the Astros odds of winning the division at all. As of today, Fangraphs gives the Astros an 86.9% chance of winning the division and a 94.0% chance of winning the division.
Second, the team should have slightly better record in this stretch than they actually have. The Astros have scored 4.9 runs per game in the second half while giving up 3.9 runs per game. The offense is down since its peak month of June, put the pitching and defense has picked it up. If you outscore your opponent by an average of a run a game, it's hard to think that you are truly slumping too badly.
The Astros expected win-loss record should be two games better than it actually was at 18-12. On the one hand, two more wins would make us all feel better about the division race against the A's. On the other hand, you cannot magically replace the real results with expected ones, so the division lead is uncomfortably close. And with just 41 games left in the season, there is not enough of a sample left to expect the Astros record to tend too strongly towards its expected record.
There was also a breakout for Carlos Correa in Kansas City. Since the break, Correa has hit .243/.320/.393 for a wOBA of .310 and an OPS+ of 101. His slump (and that of Jose Altuve--whose second half OPS is .736, right about league average) has been a big anchor on the offense. In the four game set in Kansas City, Correa went 7 for 14 with 3 walks, 4 runs scored, a pair of extra base hits, and only 1 strikeout.
A return of Correa to an above average offensive player would greatly help the offense score more runs and avoid the close losses that have bedeviled the Astros since the All Star break.
It was a frustrating series to watch in Kansas City until the offense busted through with 3 runs in the 10th inning yesterday to earn the first win of the series. But in baseball, all teams go through periods of mediocre play below their established norm.
Fans have for years been frustrated by these types of slumps, and have called for managers and players to yell, scream, and throw things in an attempt to motivate players. While the forum for these bouts of anger has moved from bar rooms to talk radio shows to social media, I don't think the content of these has changed much over time.
I do not expect Dusty Baker, or any of the Astro team leaders, to follow this advice though. Dusty Baker has managed over 3600 major league baseball games. The leaders on this team have been on deep playoff runs in each of the past 4 seasons. They all know that baseball is a game of steady emotions. The day-to-day nature of the sport makes it advantageous for players to avoid emotional highs and emotional lows. It's too stressful to do so every day for 162 games and a team with veteran leaders and a veteran manager knows that.
Are the dog days of the Astros 2021 season over? They come home for 6 against the Mariners and Royals. I'll post this musical hope that they are and are worth celebrating.
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