The 4 Game Losing Streak Sucks, but It Didn't Stop The Astros From Having the Best Sixth of Their Season So Far

And so, the first half, and the third sixth, of the season ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. The Astros lost last night to the lowly Orioles to extend their losing streak to 4 games. The Orioles series was one of the most annoying of the year, as not only did the Astros lose, but the slow pace of play and the closeness of the games through the middle innings made the losses even more excruciating.

And despite last night's loss, the game last night marked the end of the most successful sixth of the Astros season. The losing streak came after an 11 game win streak, featuring consecutive sweeps of the Rangers, White Sox, and Orioles. The Astros also won series in Boston, Buffalo (against the Jays), and Minnesota, 

The losing streak, and the terrible series against the Os, suck.  But taking a look at a slightly bigger pictures shows that the Astros are a good team that improved their stock in the last 27 games. It just doesn't feel that way.

As a reminder, here at Breathin' Orange Fire, we divide the baseball season up into sixth.  Each sixth is 27 games, which is very close to a month. And due to a happy coincidence, the third sixth ended on the last day of the month.  But it does not always coincide with a month--the first game of the sixth was on June 2.  I use sixth because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games. And the math is easier. With three sixths complete, the season is half over. So you can simply double Jose Altuve's 17 home runs to see he is on pace to hit 34 this season. 

Overall Record:  48-33 (.593)
Record This Sixth: 18-9 (.667)
On Pace for a Record of:  96-66

The Astros had their best sixth of season so far, winning two out of every three games. They went 15-12 in the both of the first two sixth of the season.  As noted, the team went on a 11 game win streak. The highlight of the sixth was a 4-game sweep of the White Sox at Minute Maid park. The Astros outscored the White Sox 27-8 in the series, showing off both an explosive offense and a capable starting rotation.

The Astros won six of nine on a road trip at the beginning of sixth, before starting the 11 game win streak.  They were 17-4 over the first 21 games of the sixth before losing 5 of their last 6. 

The big green bars on the right--the 11 game win streak.
The red bars to the right of that--better not talk about it. 

The Astros continue to play great against the best teams. They have won 20 of the 29 games they've played against teams in the top third of MLB in winning percentage--these are projected playoff games. On the other hand, they have won only 13 of the 27 games they have played against teams in the bottom third of the league.  They actually improved their record against these teams despite the sweep by the Orioles in Houston, due to sweeps of the Rangers and the Orioles in Baltimore. 

Team Offense & MLB Rank.  
R/G: 5.60 (1st). OBP: .351 (1st). SLG: .446 (2nd). OPS: .797 (1st). OPS+: 118 (1st). 

In the first sixth report, I wrote “The Astros winning record is driven by the offense. The team is scoring runs and lots of them.” In the second sixth report, I repeated that quote an added "This is even more true today than it was 27 games ago."  Both statements are true today at the end of the third sixth.

In the third sixth of the season, the Astros had a slash line of .294/.377/.490 with a wOBA of .373 and a wRC+ of 141. The walked in nearly 10.9% of their plate appearances, and scored 165 runs, 19 more than second best team in that time period (which was surprisingly enough, the Angels). 

To put that slash line in context, Yordan Alvarez's slash line for the season is .298/.365/.519. For 27 games, the Astros as a team hit like their star designated hitter, with just a little less power. The Astros .867 OPS for the third sixth would rank them 26th best among all qualified players in the majors. 

Seven of the Astros lineup regulars have OPS+s above 116, and bench bats Chas McCormick, Jason Castro, and Aledmys Diaz are also above average hitters this season. The Astros offense does not have an MVP candidate, but has the broadest base of quality hitters of any team in the American League. 

 

Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 4.04 (9th). FIP: 4.11 (13th). WHIP: 1.1 (8th). K/9: 9.0 (16th). BB/9: 3.3 (14th) 

They key to the Astros improved play in the third sixth was not their hitting--it's been top notch all season--it was the pitching.  The Astros has an ERA of 3.43 in the third sixth, which was 6th best in the MLB. 

The Astros keep runs off of the board primarily by keeping opposing batters from getting base hits. Opponents hit only .220 off Astros hurlers in the third sixth, and the team's 1.16 WHIP was 3rd best in the majors during this time period.

The Astros bullpen is the weakest part of the team,  but relievers put up a respectable 3.84 ERA during the sixth, which was 9th best in baseball over that span of games. One way the Astros were able to get such a good performance from the bullpen over the third sixth was by not using their relievers much. Astros relievers logged 84 1/3 innings since June 2nd, which is the 4th lowest in MLB. 

Team Fielding and MLB Rank

Fielding Runs Above Average 37 (2nd). Defensive Runs Saved: 45 (3rd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 7.6 (7th). Outs Above Average 23 (3rd).  Errors: 31 (1st). 

The Astros continue to show that they are an outstanding defensive team. Astros pitchers allow a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .264, in large part because of the excellent defense they play.

Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions wrote an detailed article explaining why the Astros defense is excellent, and I strongly recommend each of you read it. Simon highlighted the value the Astros get from shifting and the excellent defensive play of their two right fielders--Kyle Tucker and Chas McCormick. But what stands out most about the Astros defense is their high floor.  None of their regulars are bad defenders.  As Simon notes "There are 94 players currently at -3 Defensive Runs Saved or worse this season. The Astros employ none of them." As a result, "The Astros have gotten average or positive defensive value at eight of the nine spots on the field." 

 

Notable Player Performances

Ryan Pressly  9 IP. 2-0. 5 Saves. 15 Ks. 1 BB. 4 H. 0.15 FIP. 

I'm not sure you can beat these numbers player MLB The Show. Pressly was dominant in the third sixth, and was a big part of the 11 game win streak. I often fell Pressly gets runs down by Astros fans, but he has a 2.07 ERA, and 6.37 K/BB ratio in his 4 seasons since the Astros acquired him from Minnesota. He would be a deserving All-Star. 

Carlos Correa .345/.463/.667  .473 wOBA. 207 wRC+. 6 Defensive Runs Saved

A monster sixth from Carlos Correa.  A reminder that he is one of the handful of best players in baseball when he is healthy.  He's been healthy and good all season, but he turned it up a notch in the third sixth. Maybe I was wrong earlier; we do have an MVP candidate. 

Framber Valdez  5 GS. 34 1/3 IP. 2.10 ERA  8.1 K/9. 1/8 BB/9

Valdez has turned into the team's best starting pitcher, and he has done it primarily by harnessing his control. In the third sixth, he walked only 7 batters. Framber's ability to get strikes from his curveball, and his extreme ground ball tendencies, make him a very valuable pitcher. 

Ryne Stanek.  10 G. 9 1/3 IP. 7.71 ERA.  2 HR. 5 BB. 7 Ks

A dreadful sixth for Ryne Stanek, capped off by giving up 5 runs in the top of the 8th against the Orioles on Tuesday night. Stanek has maintained the trust of Dusty Baker to pitch in the 8th inning as Pressly's primary set-up man. We'll see if that continues.

Myles Straw  .333/.420/.440. .379 wOBA. 145 wRC+. 3.9 Ultimate Zone Rating

Straw had a great sixth, getting a health share of singles and walks to make himself a valuable contributor to the big sixth for the team. Straw is unlikely to repeat a .333 batting average most months, but his 13.0% BB% indicates he is being more selective at the plate, getting him to first base more often.

Their Place in the Race
Overall Record:  48-33 (.593)
1st Place.  ½ Game Ahead of Oakland. 5 Games Ahead of Seattle
Run Differential:  +127
Expected Record: 52-29

The Astros had an excellent sixth, but so did the As.  They have gone 16-9 since June 2nd. The Astros overtook the As for first place in the division, but only lead now by half a game due the As excellent play in the last few weeks.

The Astros lead all of major league baseball in run differential, both on a total and a per-game basis. Their run differential is 92 greater than the As.  What should happen over time is that the two teams' records will tend toward that expected record based on run differential. We saw that for the Astros in the third sixth, as their record was closer to their expected record than it was in the first two sixths. The Astros remain the clear favorites in the AL West, but the longer the As stay close, the greater their chances of upsetting the Astros.