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Showing posts from March, 2021

How Would the Astros Lose the Division? Here are the Scenarios for Each Team in the AL West

Last week, we were treated to a new set of win total projections for the 2021 MLB season, courtesy of the ATC projection system . This projection showed the exact thing that other projection systems have shown--the Astros are the favorites to win the American League West crown this year.  The Pecota projections from Baseball Prospectus say the Astros will win 92 games this season and have a 64.7% chance of winning the division. Fangraphs projections have the Astros winning 89 games with a 55.4% chance of a division crown. The current set of projections by Clay Davenport have the Astros strong favorites in the AL West, projected to win 95 games.  The ATC projections are actually more optimistic about the Astros chances than the other projections, mostly because it has a more pessimistic projection about the Astros division rivals. ATC says the Angels and As will both win 80 games, while the Astros will take home 92 victories this year. This comes out to an 87.1% chance of the Astros