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AL West Champs: 2021

Last night felt like a playoff game.  For me, one of the joys of baseball is that each game matters little in the grand scheme of things. So if you drop a game, go get 'em tomorrow.  

But with the Astros having lost 5 of 6 heading into last night and with the Mariners deciding that Pythagorean records are fictional, I watched last night with the knowledge that there were not that many tomorrows.  That sense of anxiety only increased as the game remained close into the late innings.  

But as they have so many times in actual playoff games in recent years, the Astros came through in the end. The bullpen combination of Ryne Stanek, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly held up Lance McCullers's quality start and the Astros won.

Cue the celebratory speeches, champagne showers, and the chance to see that Dusty Baker can still move when needed. 

* * * 

As Spring Training began, I wrote an article titled "Surprise! The Astros are AL West Favorites in 2021." In it, I laid out the case for why the Astros were the favorites in the division in 2021, noting pre-season record projections and Vegas odds as evidence for my case. 

But it all boiled down to this simple piece of analysis: "[the Astros] have the strongest and deepest core of players of any team in the division. The offense is led by five star level players-- Bregman, Correa, Altuve, Yordan, Tucker—and is supplemented by quality regular Michael Brantley. It’s the best core in the division."

The projected best team in the AL West turned out the be the actual best team in the AL West. 

But I wrote that article less to think about the reasons why the Astros would be good, but because I sensed among Astro fans a believe that the team would not be good. The mood had turned negative due to losing the AL West in the shortened 2020 season, the loss of George Springer and the lack of big name additions in the off-season. 

In the face of all of this negativity, I recommended "a focus on the big picture of the roster. Off-season news focuses on the shiny objects that join the team. But in the big picture, the Astros retained their strong and deep core of lineup options. The talent we have watched in each of the last four American League Championship Series is here again in 2021.

 This take help up. The six players mentioned above have have OPS+s this eason of 119, 129, 125, 136, 143, and 119 respectively. And the offense was deeper than I thought. Yuli Gurriel has had a bounce back season and the rookie outfielders have hit much better than expected. 

I bet on talent, and the Astros had the most in the division. And thus, on Opening Day, after the Astros pounded the A's 8-1 in Oakland, I came up with what would be my victory tweet for the entire season. 

I workshopped the language a bit over the next few weeks, and for most of the season it's been "On their way to another AL West crown."  Yep, got that one right. 

* * *

From 2017 to 2019, the Astros won more than 100 games each season. They comfortably won the AL West in 2017 and 2019, and were only challenged in 2018 by an A's team that implausibly outperformed its run differential--the Astros still won the division by 6 games. 

The 2021 team will win between 93 and 96 games. A healthy total, but not one of a super team. And this makes sense. The team paid Justin Verlander to rehab from Tommy John surgery this season rather than to dominate every 5th day, and George Springer and Gerrit Cole are destined to face off in the AL Wild Card game. 

This season was more challenging than those because the team is good but not great. The pitching staff had a depth of pitchers, but lacked an ace. The bullpen was middling at best for most of the season. 

But the Astros had the largest share of good players in the division. Those players played well this season, meeting or exceeding their projected stats. The team, despite the low rankings of its farm system, has been able to develop young players who are stars and young players who are contributors. The window stayed open this year and should stay open into the near future. 

Baseball is a grind. It's a 162 game season and games are played nearly every day. Good teams lose nearly 40% of the games they play.  Through all of that, the Astros have remained consistent, posting a winning record in every month this season (they were 15-12 in September). This consistency was not always spectacular, but is was very effective. No AL West opponent could match it. 

On to the post-season. Again. 

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