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Myles Straw Has Exceeded Expecations

With his bases clearing double, 2 out double in the 7th inning last night, Myles Straw broke open the game last night against the White Sox, and allowed Astros fans to relax at least a little while the bullpen worked. The big hit, combined with Lance McCullers 10 strikeouts in 7 innings, propelled the Astros to a 7-1 win.

Straw's big hit prompted Kevin Bonda to post this clip from Happy Gilmore on behalf of #AstrosTwitter. 

Of course, the sentiment that Bonda's tweet represents seems an accurate reflection of the sentiment of Astros fans about Straw over the course of this season. After the signings of Michael Brantley and Pedro Baez this off-season, it became clear that Straw would be the everyday centerfielder, as the front office was not going to go over the luxury tax threshold to sign a free agent like Jackie Bradley, Jr. 

Myles Straw hits a bases clearing double.
 
Straw seemed an underwhelming choice for a team that had aspirations to win the division and make the playoffs. Projections said Straw would slash .256./.333/.327. He would contribute speed and defense, but ultimarly was only projected to add 1.0 fWAR to the Astros in 2020.

In April, those projections seemed generous. Straw slashed only .212.289/259 in the month His defensive work seemed underwhelming as well, leading to calls for Chas McCormick to take over as the every day centerfielder. 

But then Straw started improving, and getting on base more often. In May, Straw added 90 points to his OPS, slashing .261/.330/.307.  This was better, but were numbers close to Straw's projections for the season. Maybe Straw was salvageable.

In June, Straw was more than salvageable, he was an above average hitter. He raised his batting average to .330 for the month, and with good walk numbers (12.5 BB%) and some power (5 extra base hits), he had an .845 OPS for the month, which was 33% better than league average. 

In July, Straw's batting average has declined to .258 (in 37 PAs), but he has maintained his double digit walk rate (16.2% so far this month).  He is slashing .733, right near league average.

The chart to the below shows the 20 game rolling average of Straw's OPS in the 2021 season. It shows Straw's steady improvement across the course of the season, peaking in early July. 

 Straw's defense has improved from some early struggles. In the Outs Above Average measure used by Baseball Savant, Straw is 8th best among all major league outfielders (Chas McCormick is 4th!). Straw is rated 2nd among all Major League outfielders in another fielding measure--Ultimate Zone Runs. 

Put at all together, and Fangraphs credits Straw with 2.0 WAR, twice what they projected pre-season. Straw still can add to that for the rest of the season. This is not an All-Start total, but that of a productive starter on a baseball team. 

Straw is, and will always be a limited player. His lack of power will always reduce his potential impact, and change the way the pitchers pitch him.  Straw has hit only 2 home runs this season, both of which seem most notable for their unintentional comedy. But a player who can play defense, run like crazy, and draw walks is quite valuable.

#AstrosTwitter may have written Straw off, but the actual Astros never did. He's started 84 of the team's 92 games so far this season. That may reflect the team's faith in Straw, or a lack of alternatives. But regardless, Straw has been a positive contributor this season, which is more than most of us expected in the off-season. 

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