The present for the Houston Astros is pretty good, as the team is tied for the best record in the American League and holds a 5 1/2 game lead over Oakland for the AL West lead. And the recent past is also pretty good; the Astros have been to the playoffs in five out of the last six seasons and have made four straight appearances in the American League Championship Series.
But the future...could still be bright. The championship window is still open for this franchise.
This point was driven home for me last week by the publication of Fangraph's annual Top 50 trade value list. The authors--this year they were Ben Clemens and former Astro front office executive Kevin Goldstein--try to determine "how much value...a team [could] expect to get in trade for each player on the list. So in short, the list asks if each player in baseball was on the trade market, who would get the most back in return.
The list is dominated by two types of players--the very best players in baseball (e.g. Mookie Betts is #7; Mike Trout is #13), and good players who are years away from free agency (e.g. Shane Bieber is #12 and Ke'Bryan Hayes is #16). At the top of the list are players who are both the very best in baseball and who are years away from free agency--the top of the list is Fernando Tatis, Jr., Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., and Ronald Acuna, Jr.
And what team has the most players on this august list of the 50 most valued players in the major leagues? The answer is not the ready-for-their closeup Padres, the defending World Champion Dodgers, or even the emerging-into-a-contender White Sox.
No, the answer is the Houston Astros.
The Astros have 5 players on the list:
- Alex Bregman (#9)
- Yordan Alvarez (#11)
- Kyle Tucker (#23)
- Framber Valdez (#25)
- Luis Garcia (#48)
That's one more than the White Sox and Dodgers, who both have four players on the list. Five teams have three players on the list.
Getting on this list is a small bit about how good a player is right now, and a lot about how good (and affordable) that player is for the near term future. Each of the Astros on this list are age 27 or under. Bregman is the oldest and will become a free agent the soonest (after the 2024 season).
 |
Framber Valdez has the 25th highest trade value in baseball
|
The appearance of five Astros on this list is a demonstration that despite the team's focus on winning right now over the last 5 seasons, the Astros have also been able to integrate young players into the rotation and every day lineup at the same time. And that is one reason that this team--despite the loss of George Springer to free agency and Justin Verlander to Tommy John surgery--has such a strong record this year.
It is more importantly an indication that the team's window for contention is not closing after this season. The Astros have a core of young players to go with veterans like Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley that will make them strong contenders to win the AL West again in 2022 and 2023. The golden era of Astros baseball will not depart along with Carlos Correa and Zack Greinke this off-season.
Further evidence of the Astros ability to remain playoff contenders (if not favorites) into the future is provided by looking at how the other AL West teams fared on the trade value list. There are five Astros on the list, and five players from the other four AL West clubs. Those players are:
- Mike Trout of the Angels (#13)
- Shohei Ohtani of the Angels (#17)
- Matt Olson of the A's (#31)
- Sean Murphy of the A's (#38)
- Ramon Laureano of the A's (#40)
There are no Mariners on the list (though three of their young prospects--Jared Kelenic, Logan Gilbert, and Julio Rodriguez made the honorable mention section). And while it might surprise you after watching them play in Minute Maid Park this weekend, no Rangers made the list either (Joey Gallo made honorable mention...and we're about to find out exactly what his trade value is).
No other team in the AL West has as large a set of valuable players as does the Astros. That is not only good news for the rest of the 2021 season, but also good news thinking about 2022 and 2023. The Astros may also benefit from the A's choice to limit their payroll in the future, as it is certainly possible that the As trade one of Olson, Laureano, or Matt Chapman this off-season.
It should be noted that the trade value list is not the be-all, end-all of how teams will do. The Giants have no players on the list (and only one in the honorable mention section), yet they have the best record in baseball. The list focuses on high level every day players and members of the starting rotation, but teams can win by having a broad set of contributors like the Rays have done in recent years.
And the list will change over time. Veteran players like Bregman (and Trout) will move down the list next year as they get older and more expensive, while young players who establish themselves as regulars will enter and move up the list, like Valdez and Garcia did this year. The Mariners could place several of their young prospects on the list next year--Gilbert almost certainly will be on the list if he stays healthy.
But what the trade value list tells us is that the Astros will continue to be contenders--if not outright favorites--to win the AL West over the next few seasons. The proverbial window of contention is not closing on Houston thanks to the Astros ability to develop young players.
Comments