Breathin' Orange Fire

No player has gone more from "who's that?" to "who's that!" this season for the Astros than Chas McCormick. McCormick seemed the beneficiary of the Astros choice to avoid signing a second veteran outfielder this off-season. That decision moved Myles Straw to starting centerfielder, and McCormick to make his major league debut as the fourth outfielder.  But McCormick has seized his opportunity, hitting 9 homers, scoring 25 runs and driving in 27 runs in 132 PAs so far this season. McCormick's slash line is highlighted by his power at .231/.291/.496. His OPS+ of 113 and his wRC+ of 113 are both above league average. McCormick's power is combined with good defense in the outfield corners and excellent speed.  This diverse set of skills has led Astros observers to agree with this tweet from Chronicle beat writer Chandler Rome: Chas McCormick should play more. — Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 18, 2021 In this article, I address the question of should...

On Thursday, baseball writer Ryan Spaeder tweeted a thread of claims of cheating by a number of major league baseball teams.  On Friday, Spaeder retracted the thread, tweeting  "I deeply regret everything that I said -- it has turned my life upside down. It was a mistake, and I should not have reported on unfounded allegations."  In between these two sets of tweets, Astros Twitter made much of Spaeder's accusations, as thinly sourced as they were. Astros fans feel that their team has received a disproportionate share of vitriol from baseball fans--especially on social media--and took the accusations against other teams as evidence of what has long been suspected if not proven--that many other teams were using nefarious means to steal signs. What the Astros did in 2017 and 2018 may have broken the rules of baseball, but it was similar to, if not the same as, what many other teams did.  That last statement, like those of Speader in his initial thread, is an fine hypo...

The formula to play winning baseball is simple...play the good teams to a draw and beat up on the bad teams. It's what some of the best team in the majors are doing this year. The White Sox are 13-18 against teams over .500 and 28-7 against teams below .500. The A's are 17-18 against winning teams and 24-9 against losing teams. The Dodgers are similar; they are  16-20 against teams with a winning record and 24-6 against teams with a losing record. The Astros have one of the best records in baseball, but they are doing it differently. They are beating up on good teams--they're 27-16 against teams with records above .500--and getting beat by bad teams--they're 10-16 against teams below .500. You can examine the data in more detailed form and the Astros backwards performance--best against the best and worst against the worst--is shown even more sharply. I grouped major league baseball teams into thirds by winning percentage. The Astros record against teams in the best thir...

 On Saturday, Aledmys Diaz was pulled from the game after being hit by a pitch from Blue Jays starter Ross Stripling. Sunday, news came that Diaz was not pulled for precautionary reasons. He had broken his hand.  Aledmys Díaz fractured his left hand. He’s going to be out a while. Dusty Baker says approximately 6-8 weeks. — Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) June 6, 2021 This is obviously bad news for the Astros as Diaz was contributing at the plate with a .278/.341/.435 slash line, and on defense with his flexibility--Diaz has played every infield position as well as left and right field this season.  But it is also a big problem because the Astros are a team without a great deal of depth.  Aledmys Diaz is taken out of the game on Saturday. The Astros have the 5th best record  (33-26) and the 3rd best run differential (+69) in the American League. This success is driven by the team's frontline players. They have seven lineup regulars with OPS+'s at 119 or greater. Fiv...

The Astros 5-1 victory last night over the Red Sox was significant for two reasons. First, it means the Astros are guaranteed a split against the Red Sox, which, since I married a Red Sox fan, means I get the upper hand on price in my house.  And second, it closes out the second sixth of the season. Here at Breathin’ Orange Fire, we mark the season through each 27 game block in which the Astros play—or each sixth of the season. While you usually see discussions of the end of the month, I prefer sixths for two reasons: 1)       It’s easier to compare sixths because they are equal. So Kyle Tucker’s slash line of .327/.405/.602 this sixth is a big improvement on the .173/.229/.357 slash line from the first sixth of the season. 2)       The math is easier. The Astros have now played 54 games—which is two-sixth or one-third of the season. You can take all of their counting stats and multiply by 3. So Carlos Correa has hit 8 homers,...

Robert Ford had the play-by-play in the radio booth in the first, and his call of a ball on the first pitch of the ballgame sent a negative thought to my mind—not again. After a weekend of too many walks from Astros pitchers, I feared the worst. I shouldn’t have. Urquidy threw 87 pitches in his six innings on Memorial Day against the Red Sox; only 26 were balls. 61 were strikes. Urquidy’s ability to throw strikes on Monday led him to a high-quality start, as he allowed only 1 run, 3 hits, and 1 walk while striking out 9. After a weekend of the Padres bats teeing off on Astros pitching in between bases on balls, Urquidy’s outing—and the 11 runs put up by the offense—were a welcome sight for Astros fans. I also should not have feared the worst from Urquidy yesterday because Urquidy has consistently pitched well in his time in the big leagues. Since making his debut in August 2019, Urquidy has made 21 regular season starts in the Orange and Blue.  He has a 3.26 ERA with 99 strik...