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Is Cristian Javier a Starting Pitcher? His Developing Curveball Will Tell the Story

 The Astros return home tonight and the starting pitcher will be Cristian Javier. Javier was optioned to the alternate site on April 10th to allow him to focus on stretching out as a starter. 

The Astros could have placed Javier in the bullpen, where he would have been quite welcome over the last 11 days. The choice to have Javier focus on working longer in games, combined with the front office's choice this off-season not to bring in potential 5th starter candidates on either major league or non-roster invitee Spring Training contracts, reflects a view by the Astros front office that Javier's long term role on this team is as a starting pitcher.

This stands in contrast with some of the scouting reports on Javier as a prospect. In early 2020, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel identified Javier as the Astros 6th best prospect and wrote that "It may be in a 90 or 100 inning bullpen role, but Javier projects to be a core piece of Houston’s staff." That matched their 2019 assessment that if Javier's command did not "progress a little bit," then "he could be an excellent multi-inning reliever." 

Why do high level prospect analysts think Javier might be best off in a relief role.  One is that Javier has not been a starter his entire minor league career. He started in only 55 of the 92 games he pitched in the Astros minor league system. Javier also struggled with his control in the minors, walking 3.9 batters per 9 inning pitched. 

Javier pitched well in a multi-inning role in the bullpen in the 2020 postseason. The Astros won all 5 of the games he appeared in last postseason, as Javier struck out 13 in 9 1/3 IP. His move to the postseason bullpen helped solved the bullpen issues of 2020. 

But the biggest reason that Javier seems destined for a bullpen role is that he came to the majors with only 2 quality pitches. In his 2020 rookie season, Javier threw his 4-seam fastball and slider 88.5% of the time, according to Baseball Savant. Having two, but only two, good pitches is usually a recipe to be in a major league bullpen. 

In 2021, Javier has done more to mix in a 3rd pitch--a curveball. He has thrown that pitch 14.9% of the time in his two starts this season, up from 4.3% in 2020. While Javier throws his fastball--nicknamed the invisiball because its "rare combination of deception in his delivery...and backspin on his fastball"--for the majority of his pitches, he has increased his curveball while decreasing the frequency in which he throws a slider or a changeup.

Javier's pitch mix, via BaseballSavant.com

In particular, Javier is using the curveball against left handed pitching. Of his 70 pitches to LHBs this season, 24  (34.2%) have been curveballs. Against RHPs, Javier has not thrown a curveball. Against righties, Javier has relied entirely on fastball and curveball. 

To succeed as a staring pitcher, Javier needs a 3rd pitch. Watch tonight, and in the rest of his starts this season, to see how often and how well he throws his curveball. 





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