Breathin' Orange Fire

How do you build a good baseball team?  It's different than in the other two major American sports. In basketball, it is essential to have a star--an Hakeem or a Giannis--and surround him with another star or two and a bunch of complimentary players who know their role. In football, the key is the quarterback. For years, the AFC Championship seemed to be a battle between Tom Brady's team and Peyton Manning's.  Now it goes to Pat Mahomes 's son's team, who faced off against Brady in the last Super Bowl. .  But baseball does not revolve around stars in the way that these other sports do. As fans of an AL West team, we are well aware of this. At the end of this season, the Angels will have won more MVP awards over the last decade than they have played playoff games. Shohei Ohtani is awesome, and Mike Trout is even more awesome, but these superstars have not been able to overcome the dreck the keeps occupying the rest of the Angels roster. The Astros contrast to the Ang...

The comeback on Sunday was awesome, as rookie outfielders Jose Siri and Chas McCormick hit back-to-back home runs in the 8 th to turn a 6-4 deficit into a 7-6 victory. But what was worrisome was that a comeback was necessary at all. The Astros fell behind in the game because Zack Greinke had a bad start—giving up 5 runs over 4 innings while allowing 5 hits, 1 home along with 3 strikeouts and 1 walk. It really fell apart for Greinke in the 4 th as he gave up 4 singles, with a walk to Astro killer Kole Calhoun. The bad outing by Greinke has unfortunately become a common occurrence. Greinke gave up 8 runs (7 earned) in 5 innings on Tuesday of last week in Arlington. Greinke took the loss in that start, as he had in his previous two starts in late August. In fact, Greinke’s season seemed to turn on July 31, when he was shelled in San Francisco. Greinke gave up 6 runs and 4 homers in 4 innings at Oracle Park. The chart at the right shows Greinke's stats before that start in San ...

The trade was an absolute shocker. While we all knew that the Astros needed bullpen help at the trade deadline, none of us expected them to get it by trading their starting centerfielder. In exchange for Myles Straw, the Astros acquired another bullpen arm--Phil Maton.  My analysis of the trade has tended to focus on the centerfield situation for the Astros. At the time, I argued that James Click thought that he had a surplus in centerfield with Straw, Chas McCormick, and Jake Meyers. In analyzing whether Jake Meyers could take over as the everyday centerfielder, I noted Click's analysis that "McCormick and Meyers would produce as well as the combination of Straw and McCormick...has worked as planned." Phil Maton's spin rates are better than his results. James Click identified a surplus at one position on his roster and used that strength to try to plug a weakness at another spot. Six weeks later, we know Click was right about having a surplus in the outfield, but we...

What is Cristian Javier?  I mean, we know the answer to who is Cristian Javier. He’s a pitcher for the Astros who successfully debuted when pressed into the rotation in 2020. He’s a 24 year old from the Dominican Republic. And he’s a fun guy wins the coffee game, the YouTube MVP, and our smiles in every picture he takes from Julia Morales. But the more interesting question about Javier is what is he?  And where does he fit into the Astros plans this October?  Is he a potential multi-inning weapon who can bridge the difference between starters who will likely be on short leashes after two times through the order and the late inning guys in the bullpen?  Or is he an average reliever who will only be used in low leverage situations in October, if at all. The reason we do not know what role Javier will play for the Astros in the playoffs is that Javier has been a bundle of contradictions throughout his two seasons with the Astros. We seem no closer to resolving those...

We all know the old trite expression "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings."  The American League West division race is not over, the regularly sized primadonna wearing the Valkyrie costume does seem to be warming up.  Last night was 8 1/2 innings of frustration for us Astros fans. The Astros constantly could get runners on base, only to leave them stranded at the end of an inning; the Astros were 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position in the first nine innings. The Mariners scored in the most frustrating way--driving in 2 with a two-out, two-strike hit by J.P. Crawford and a homer by this year's designated Astro killer Kyle Seager. The  Mariners also tallied an insurance run in the top of the ninth off of Ryan Pressly, which only seems to portend more doom for Astros fans. That feeling changed suddenly when Alex Bregman homered in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game. The Astros had life. Ryne Stanek responded with an excellent inning in the top of the ten...

I spent last night watching my team get battered around in Southern California by what I thought was an inferior team when the game starter, but don't think that's the case after the game. And of course, I speak of the LSU Tigers, my favorite college football team. The Astros had a particularly bad night too, dropping a game 10-2 to the Padres. That game also marked the end of the fifth sixth of the baseball season.  Here at Breathin' Orange Fire, we analyze the baseball season in sixth--each is a 27 game segment that corresponds to, but not exactly, the sixth months of a baseball season. I use sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games.  For example, the Astros won 14 games in the fifth sixth of the season. It is their worst sixth of the season. The Astros won 15 games in the first two sixths, 18 in the third, and 17 in the fourth sixth of the season.  But they lost only 13 games, for a winning record in the sixth. And th...